乌拉圭 vs 西班牙

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主要看点

• Reference first-half markets point to a controlled Spain start, not a wild early total. Matchday-3 escalation risk exists if Uruguay trail or if goal difference becomes relevant, but +0.75 still has protection against a draw and only fully loses on a Spain win by 2+.
• Uruguay’s 4-2-3-1 has Ugarte-Bentancur protection behind Valverde, Araújo and Núñez, plus de Arrascaeta, Pellistri, Rodríguez and Viñas as late chase/counter options. Spain’s 4-3-3 has stronger control through Rodri-Pedri-Merino and wide threat from Yamal/Baena, but Uruguay have enough midfield resistance and direct outlet to cover +0.75.
• Group H context is central: Spain lead on 4 pts and can secure 1st with a win, but a draw likely keeps automatic top-2 control; a loss still leaves a strong best-third-place route because of +4 GD. Uruguay on 2 pts need a win for top-2 control, a draw can leave them exposed to Cabo Verde/Saudi and third-place comparisons, and a loss creates serious final-table danger. Bracket path matters: Spain do not have a blind need to chase 1st at all costs because 1st, 2nd, or 3rd send them into different fixed R32 routes. Closest rejected market was Goals Over/Under: Under 2.25 has draw/game-management logic, but Uruguay’s need to react if Cabo Verde/Saudi moves against them makes the total more fragile than the side cover.