挪威 vs 法国

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主要看点

• Reference first-half odds lean to France pressure and a live opening phase: Away -0.25 FH and Over 1.25 FH both point to early pace. Matchday 3 escalation is moderate, not desperate: France can manage a draw, but Norway need a win to top the group, so conceding first can force earlier risk-taking and widen late-margin risk.
• France start a full pressure front with Mbappé, Dembélé, Olise and Doué ahead of Koné/Tchouaméni, plus strong late attackers in Barcola, Thuram, Mateta and Cherki. Norway’s XI leaves several major ball-progression and finishing options on the bench, so their resistance relies more on Bobb/Schjelderup outlets and Strand Larsen holding play than sustained control.
• Group I table: both teams are already automatic top-2 qualifiers on 6 points; France lead Norway by GD +5 to +4, so a draw keeps France 1st, a Norway win flips Norway to 1st, and a France win confirms France 1st. Loss only changes 1st/2nd, not qualification; the R32 path changes materially, with Group I winner facing a 3rd-place team from C/D/F/G/H and runner-up facing Runner-up Group E. The closest rejected family is Goals Over/Under: Over 3.25 has tempo support but needs both efficiency and Norway contribution, while Under 3.25 is exposed if Norway chase after conceding. BTTS No was also rejected because Norway have enough wide/counter and bench scoring routes to make a clean sheet price fragile.