新西兰 vs 比利时

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主要看点

• First-half references lean to Belgium pressure, but FH Under 1.75 at 1.82 shows the market does not fully price an instant blowout; full-match risk is more about late extension if New Zealand chase.
• New Zealand’s 4-2-3-1 has a direct outlet through Chris Wood, support from Sarpreet Singh/Ryan Thomas/Elijah Just, and enough defensive subs to protect shape. Belgium have superior creators and late attackers, but their XI lacks a true penalty-box No.9 from the start, with Lukaku held as bench margin insurance.
• Group G table matters: Belgium on 2 pts need a win for automatic top-2 control, draw leaves them exposed to 3rd-place/bracket-path uncertainty, and loss risks theoretical-only survival. New Zealand on 1 pt likely need a win for top-2/best-third viability, so a first conceded goal can open them up, but +2.25 still has cover paths through Wood set pieces, direct counters, and Belgium needing efficiency to clear a 3-goal margin. Closest rejected: Goals Under 4, because late chase/collapse and Belgium bench attackers make a high total less stable than the handicap.