英格兰 vs 刚果（金）

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主要看点

• First-half reference markets point to England pressure but not a guaranteed early goal. Knockout caution can slow the opening phase, while a first England goal raises Congo DR chase risk and creates the main margin-building window.
• England’s 4-2-3-1 has Rice-Anderson protection behind Bellingham, Madueke, Rashford and Kane, with Saka, Gordon, Watkins, Eze and Toney giving stronger late attacking substitution paths. Congo DR have a compact 4-2-3-1 and Wissa as the main outlet, but their cover path depends heavily on surviving sustained territory and first-contact defending.
• Closest rejected family was Goals Over/Under: Over 2.25 is live if Congo DR open up, but it needs either Congo scoring or England reaching three; Home -1.5 is cleaner because England can win it through a 2-0 control script or late bench-driven extension. This is Round of 32 regulation-time only, so England advancement strength is separated from the 90-minute handicap risk.