Türkiye vs USA

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• First-half reference markets lean only mildly toward USA pressure, not enough for a first-half pick; full-game edge is more about late bench depth and Türkiye’s forced risk after the first goal.
• USA still start a balanced 4-2-3-1 with McKennie/Berhalter support behind Reyna, Weah, Aaronson and Pepi, plus Pulišić, Balogun, Wright, Tillman and Adams available to raise late tempo; Türkiye have creativity through Arda/Kenan but Hakan, Kerem and others are bench levers rather than starters.
• Group D table: USA are on 6 pts, GD +5 and already control top-2, while Türkiye are on 0 pts, GD -3 and need a win plus external help for even a best-third-place route. USA win keeps 1st-place control and the Group D winner path; draw likely still wins the group but reduces incentive after parity, while a loss only creates tie-break exposure. Türkiye win gives theoretical survival, draw/loss are effectively elimination, so if they concede first they must open up, increasing late collapse risk. Closest rejected: Goals Under 3, because Türkiye’s must-win chase and USA’s attacking bench make the low-total script more fragile than USA simply winning regulation.