Mexico vs Ecuador

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• First-half reference markets lean cautious, especially Under 0.75 at 1.84, so the pick is not an early-goal chase. The angle relies more on second-half game-state: once one team trails in a knockout tie, the chasing side’s bench and wide/forward options can lift transition volume.
• Mexico start a true 4-3-3 with Jiménez, Quiñones and Alvarado, plus multiple late attacking options from the bench. Ecuador’s 4-4-2 has Valencia and Plata as direct outlets, with Caicedo/Vite supplying enough central progression to avoid being only a low-block side.
• Closest rejected family is Asian Handicap: Home -0.25 is tempting because Mexico have venue/context and deeper attacking substitutions, but in a Round of 32 regulation-time market the draw is live and that line suffers a half-loss on 90-minute stalemate. Over 1.75 needs two goals for a full win and keeps some protection at exactly two only through normal settlement, while avoiding a narrow side call in an efficient matchup.