Croatia vs Ghana

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• First-half reference prices lean toward a cautious Ghana survival script rather than early Croatia separation, but Matchday 3 escalation is real: if Croatia lead or if external table pressure rises, Ghana may open up, creating late handicap risk.
• Ghana’s 4-3-3 has a real cover path: Partey/Owusu/Sibo can screen central zones, while Kamaldeen Sulemana, Semenyo and Jordan Ayew give outlets; Fatawu, Iñaki Williams and Nuamah preserve late transition threat. Croatia have control and bench forwards, but this XI is more technical than explosive, so a multi-goal Croatian margin is not the cleanest script.
• Group L table makes this efficient but playable: Ghana are on 4 pts and a draw likely protects automatic top-2, while Croatia on 3 pts need a win to control top-2 and avoid a 3rd-place path. A Croatia win moves them to 6 and likely top two; a draw leaves Croatia in the best-third race and Ghana on 5; a Ghana loss leaves Ghana vulnerable to 3rd but still alive. Finishing 1st/2nd avoids the tougher 3rd-place R32 path vs Winner Group K, so Croatia must push, but Ghana’s +0.75 keeps one-goal Croatia win as only a half-loss. Closest rejected family: Goals Under/Over, because Croatia’s late chase and Ghana’s transition bench make the total more game-state fragile than the side cushion.