Canada vs Morocco

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• Round of 16 game state should be cautious before the first goal. After a goal, risk rises: Canada have enough transition and substitute threat to chase, while Morocco's attacking bench can punish space, so the draw-protected home handicap fits the efficient market better than a low-total shelter.
• Canada's 4-4-2 has a real underdog cover path: David and Oluwaseyi give a direct front-two outlet, Buchanan/Ahmed provide wide release, and Eustaquio-Sigur can screen central combinations. Morocco's 4-2-3-1 has better creative layering through Brahim Diaz, Ounahi and El Khannouss, but Canada also has late bench routes through Davies, Shaffelburg, Millar and Larin.
• Asian Handicap was preferred over Goals Over/Under. Under 2.25 was the closest rejected family because knockout tempo can start cautious, but it is more exposed if Morocco score first and Canada's attacking bench turns the match into a chase. Morocco -0.5 was rejected because this is regulation time only; Morocco may still be the cleaner advancement lean without being a strong 90-minute win price.