Match detail
Valencia vs Atlético Madrid
La Liga · 34
Match summary
vs
La Liga · 34
Lineup revision status
CompleteLineup-based prediction complete
The final pre-kickoff prediction has already been re-run with the official lineups.
Current version
Lineup revisionRe-run after the official lineups were posted.
Status
Full Time
Venue
Estadio de Mestalla · Valencia
Referee
—
Live score
0-2
Top event
Asian Handicap: Valencia -0.25
Probability
61%
Price
1.80
Initial publish
May 2, 2026, 4:00 PM GMT+2
Kickoff
May 2, 2026, 4:15 PM GMT+2
Revision time
May 2, 2026, 6:30 PM GMT+2
Halftime score
0-0
What shaped the view
- + Valencia should get more wing pressure against Atlético’s rotated wide/back-line structure; totals are less clean because Atlético’s starting attack is also weakened.
- + Official XIs matter here: Valencia start a direct 4-4-2 with Gayà, Rioja, Ramazani and Sadiq, while Atlético rotate heavily with Oblak, Griezmann, Koke, Baena and Lookman all on the bench.
- + Valencia -0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 is preferred over the same-priced -0.5 because it reduces draw damage without sacrificing price.
Official lineups
Valencia
Formation: 4-4-2 · Coach: —
Starting XI
- #1 · Stole Dimitrievski · GOALKEEPER
- #20 · Renzo Saravia · DEFENDER
- #5 · César Tárrega · DEFENDER
- #18 · Pepelu · DEFENDER
- #14 · José Gayà · DEFENDER
- #11 · Luis Rioja · MIDFIELDER
- #8 · Javi Guerra · MIDFIELDER
- #2 · Guido Rodríguez · MIDFIELDER
- #23 · Filip Ugrinic · MIDFIELDER
- #17 · Largie Ramazani · ATTACKER
- #6 · Umar Sadiq · ATTACKER
Bench
Unai Núñez, Arnaut Danjuma, Hugo Duro, André Almeida, Cristian Rivero, Diego López, Dani Raba, Jesús Vázquez
Atlético Madrid
Formation: 4-5-1 · Coach: —
Starting XI
- #1 · Juan Musso · GOALKEEPER
- #32 · Javier Boñar · DEFENDER
- #24 · Robin Le Normand · DEFENDER
- #15 · Clément Lenglet · DEFENDER
- #34 · Julio Díaz · DEFENDER
- #16 · Nahuel Molina · MIDFIELDER
- #4 · Rodrigo Mendoza · MIDFIELDER
- #47 · Javi Morcillo · MIDFIELDER
- #21 · Obed Vargas · MIDFIELDER
- #11 · Thiago Almada · MIDFIELDER
- #29 · Rayane Belaid · ATTACKER
Bench
Matteo Ruggeri, Johnny Cardoso, Koke, Antoine Griezmann, Álex Baena, Jan Oblak, Marc Pubill, Ademola Lookman
Injuries
- Atlético Madrid · Alexander Sørloth · Doubtful · DOUBTFUL
- Atlético Madrid · Giuliano Simeone · Thigh Muscle Strain · THIGH_MUSCLE_STRAIN
- Atlético Madrid · Marcos Llorente · Doubtful · DOUBTFUL
- Atlético Madrid · Dávid Hancko · Doubtful · DOUBTFUL
- Valencia · Lucas Beltrán · Muscle Injury · MUSCLE_INJURY
- Atlético Madrid · Pablo Barrios · Thigh Muscle Strain · THIGH_MUSCLE_STRAIN
- Valencia · Mouctar Diakhaby · Muscle Injury · MUSCLE_INJURY
- Valencia · Julen Agirrezabala · Unknown Injury · UNKNOWN_INJURY
- Valencia · Thierry Correia · Unknown Injury · UNKNOWN_INJURY
- Valencia · Eray Cömert · Unknown Injury · UNKNOWN_INJURY
Why it made the board
Valencia -0.25 is the cleanest expression of the lineup edge. Atlético’s official XI is heavily rotated through goal, defense and midfield, while Valencia have enough width and direct threat to push territory at Mestalla. The safer -0.25 at 1.80 beats chasing goals in a match where Atlético may still sit compact.
Main risk
Odds Trap: Two failure modes: the market may already have fully priced the Atlético rotation, and Simeone can keep it tight long enough to upgrade the game late from the bench.
Update timeline
Current version
Lineup revision
Initial publish
May 2, 2026, 4:00 PM GMT+2
Revision time
May 2, 2026, 6:30 PM GMT+2
Score
0-2