Match detail

USA vs Australia

World Cup 2026 · group_stage

Match summary

USA

Australia

World Cup 2026 · group_stage

Initial pick

Lineup revision status

Complete

Lineup-based prediction complete

The final pre-kickoff prediction has already been re-run with the official lineups.

Current version

Initial pickThis is the first published version.

Top eventPrice2.00

Asian Handicap: USA -1

Probability

54%

Confidence

medium

Confidence

58%

Published

Jun 19, 2026, 8:09 PM GMT+2

Kickoff

Jun 19, 2026, 9:00 PM GMT+2

Last update

Jun 19, 2026, 11:04 PM GMT+2

Result

WIN

What shaped the view

USA already have 3 pts and +3 GD, but a second win would virtually secure progression and goal difference can still matter for group rank; Australia’s conservative shape can slow the first half, yet chasing after conceding would expose the back five late.
USA start a balanced but high-upside 4-2-3-1 with Robinson/Dest width, McKennie/Tillman support and Balogun/Pepi goal threat; Australia’s 5-4-1 protects the box but also starts with limited forward presence and Ryan/Irvine/Hrustic/Irankunda held on the bench.
Home -1 at 2.00 is preferred over Away +1 at 1.80 because the push protects a narrow USA win, while Australia +1 needs either a draw/away win or exactly a one-goal USA win for only a push; the lineup gap and USA’s bench give the favorite better late margin upside.

Official lineups

Official lineups are not posted yet. This panel updates when the feed goes live.

Injuries

No injury report is currently available for this match.

Why it made the board

Complete

The strongest edge is the side market: USA’s XI has more ball progression, width and finishing depth, while Australia are set up to absorb with a lone striker and may struggle to sustain exits. Home -1 is not a simple win bet, but at 2.00 the push on a one-goal USA win makes it a cleaner position than forcing totals or BTTS against a compact away setup.

Main risk

Tactical Counter: Australia’s 5-4-1 can turn long spells into low-quality USA possession, making a one-goal USA win/push the main downside rather than a full cover.

Update timeline