Match detail

Uruguay vs Cabo Verde

World Cup 2026 · group_stage

Match summary

Uruguay

Cabo Verde

World Cup 2026 · group_stage

Initial pick

Lineup revision status

Complete

Lineup-based prediction complete

The final pre-kickoff prediction has already been re-run with the official lineups.

Current version

Initial pickThis is the first published version.

Top eventPrice1.87

Goals Over/Under: Under 2.25

Probability

56%

Confidence

medium

Confidence

58%

Published

Jun 21, 2026, 11:05 PM GMT+2

Kickoff

Jun 22, 2026, 12:00 AM GMT+2

Last update

Jun 22, 2026, 1:40 AM GMT+2

Result

LOSS

What shaped the view

First-half reference prices lean away from an early Uruguay lead and toward a slower opening, matching a group state where both teams gain from avoiding damage before chasing late only if needed.
Uruguay start a controlled 4-2-3-1 with Ugarte-Bentancur protection and Viñas ahead of the stronger attacking bench; Cabo Verde’s 4-1-4-1 gives them a compact midfield screen and one-striker shape.
Under 2.25 is cleaner than Asian Handicap: Uruguay -1.25 needs a multi-goal margin despite a likely compact opponent, while Cabo Verde +1.25 is exposed to Uruguay’s late attacking substitutes if the game opens. BTTS Yes lacks a proven stable Cabo Verde high-quality-shot path.

Official lineups

Official lineups are not posted yet. This panel updates when the feed goes live.

Injuries

No injury report is currently available for this match.

Why it made the board

Complete

The market is efficient, but the best supplied angle is a low-to-moderate scoring script: Cabo Verde can protect central areas in a 4-1-4-1, Uruguay have control from the double pivot, and the group table does not force immediate all-out risk from either side. Under 2.25 also survives common 1-0, 1-1 and partially 2-0/0-2 outcomes better than the handicap options.

Main risk

Tactical Counter: An early Uruguay goal would force Cabo Verde to open earlier, and Uruguay’s bench attackers can lift late tempo enough to turn a controlled match into a 2-1 or 3-0 loss for the under.

Update timeline