Match detail

Tunisia vs Netherlands

World Cup 2026 · group_stage

Match summary

Tunisia

Netherlands

World Cup 2026 · group_stage

Initial pick

Lineup revision status

Complete

Lineup-based prediction complete

The final pre-kickoff prediction has already been re-run with the official lineups.

Current version

Initial pickThis is the first published version.

Top eventPrice1.82

Goals Over/Under: Under 3.5

Probability

58%

Confidence

medium

Confidence

58%

Published

Jun 26, 2026, 12:10 AM GMT+2

Kickoff

Jun 26, 2026, 1:00 AM GMT+2

Last update

Jun 26, 2026, 2:55 AM GMT+2

Result

LOSS

What shaped the view

The first-half reference lines lean under 1.5, pointing to a measured opening before Tunisia’s desperation shows up. That supports a contained full-game total more than a true shootout.
Netherlands start a strong 4-3-3 with Van Dijk/Aké, Dumfries, de Jong and Reijnders behind Gakpo, Malen and Brobbey; Tunisia’s 4-2-3-1 has Skhiri, Mejbri and Gharbi, but their 0 pts/-8 GD start makes the trailing-game script fragile.
Group F: Netherlands and Japan are both on 4 pts, so the Dutch can manage qualification and still care about the 1st/2nd-place path without forcing a rout. Tunisia are 0 pts/-8 and effectively need a win plus help, so any chase comes late and adds volatility more than a reliable cover path. Under 3.5 fits that controlled Dutch script better than Home +2.5, which is more exposed to a clean-sheet 3-0.

Official lineups

Official lineups are not posted yet. This panel updates when the feed goes live.

Injuries

No injury report is currently available for this match.

Why it made the board

Complete

Closest rejected market family was Asian Handicap: Home +2.5. Netherlands on 4 pts/+4 can likely qualify with a draw and still keep the 1st/2nd-place path alive, so they do not need a forced 3+ margin; a loss would create tiebreak stress, but the strong XI still points to control rather than a reckless chase. Tunisia on 0 pts/-8 are effectively on a theoretical-only survival path, so their risk comes from late chasing, which makes Under 3.5 the cleaner fit to the expected 2-0/3-0 band and better than BTTS Yes, which lacks a stable Tunisian shot path.

Main risk

Tactical Counter: Late Tunisia chasing can create transition goals if the Dutch score first and keep pressing for the group path.

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