Match detail

Tunisia vs Japan

World Cup 2026 · group_stage

Match summary

Tunisia

Japan

World Cup 2026 · group_stage

Initial pick

Lineup revision status

Complete

Lineup-based prediction complete

The final pre-kickoff prediction has already been re-run with the official lineups.

Current version

Initial pickThis is the first published version.

Top eventPrice1.77

Asian Handicap: Japan -1

Probability

59%

Confidence

medium

Confidence

59%

Published

Jun 21, 2026, 5:05 AM GMT+2

Kickoff

Jun 21, 2026, 6:00 AM GMT+2

Last update

Jun 21, 2026, 7:45 AM GMT+2

Result

WIN

What shaped the view

Japan have incentive to win and move to 4 points after drawing Netherlands, while Tunisia’s -4 GD means they cannot treat a narrow defeat as useful. That should eventually open spaces for Japan’s wingbacks and late attackers.
Japan’s XI has the cleaner 3-4-2-1 balance: Tomiyasu-Itakura-Ito protection, Kamada/Sano control, Doan/Nakamura width, and Ueda as a focal point. Tunisia’s shape has work rate through Skhiri/Hannibal but less proven penalty-box threat, with attacking upgrades mostly held for the bench.
Preferred over Away -1.25 because -1 keeps the push on a one-goal Japan win; Tunisia +1/+1.25 needs the underdog to stay within one despite a poor opening 5-1 loss and a matchup where Japan can control width and transitions.

Official lineups

Official lineups are not posted yet. This panel updates when the feed goes live.

Injuries

No injury report is currently available for this match.

Why it made the board

Complete

Japan’s lineup offers better defensive security, midfield control, and late attacking depth, and the group state rewards a proactive win rather than settling for a draw. Away -1 is safer than chasing -1.25 because it refunds on a one-goal Japan win while still backing the clearer side edge.

Main risk

Tactical Counter: Main risk is Tunisia staying compact in a mirrored 3-4-2-1 and turning the match into a low-margin game where Japan win by only one or fail to break through early.

Update timeline