Match detail

Switzerland vs Algeria

World Cup 2026 · round_of_32

Match summary

Switzerland

Algeria

World Cup 2026 · round_of_32

Initial pick

Lineup revision status

Complete

Lineup-based prediction complete

The final pre-kickoff prediction has already been re-run with the official lineups.

Current version

Initial pickThis is the first published version.

Top eventPrice2.00

Asian Handicap: Switzerland -0.5

Probability

52%

Confidence

medium

Confidence

58%

Published

Jul 3, 2026, 4:14 AM GMT+2

Kickoff

Jul 3, 2026, 5:00 AM GMT+2

Last update

Jul 3, 2026, 7:03 AM GMT+2

Result

WIN

What shaped the view

Round of 32 regulation-time bet only; extra time/penalties do not help the handicap. First-half reference markets point to early caution, so the main risk is a slow draw script before late Swiss pressure.
Switzerland’s XI has the steadier regulation-time spine: Kobel behind Akanji/Elvedi/Rodríguez, Xhaka-Freuler control, and Embolo supported by Ndoye/Vargas. Bench attackers Okafor, Amdouni and Itten give the cleaner late goal-chasing options.
Highly efficient knockout market. Under 2.25 was the closest rejected family, but it lost because both benches carry enough attacking substitutes to make a post-goal chase volatile, while Home -0.5 only needs Switzerland’s small structure/bench edge to convert inside 90 minutes.

Official lineups

Official lineups are not posted yet. This panel updates when the feed goes live.

Injuries

No injury report is currently available for this match.

Why it made the board

Complete

Pick is Switzerland -0.5 at 2.00. This is not a dominant edge: the match is likely efficient and Algeria’s Mahrez/Aouar/Chaïbi support can keep the draw live. The lean is strictly Switzerland’s more balanced defensive spine, Xhaka-led control, Embolo outlet, and stronger late attacking bench to find the decisive 90-minute goal. Totals were close, especially Under 2.25, but the late-chase substitutes on both sides make the low-total angle more fragile after the first goal.

Main risk

Tactical Counter: Main risk is a knockout draw script: if Algeria’s double pivot protects the centre and their creators slow Switzerland’s pressure, Home -0.5 has no push protection and loses on any 90-minute draw.

Update timeline