Match detail
Sporting CP vs Tondela
Liga Portugal · 26
Match summary
vs
Liga Portugal · 26
Lineup revision status
CompleteLineup-based prediction complete
The final pre-kickoff prediction has already been re-run with the official lineups.
Current version
Lineup revisionRe-run after the official lineups were posted.
Status
Full Time
Venue
Estádio José Alvalade · Lisboa
Referee
—
Live score
2-2
Top event
Asian Handicap: Sporting CP -2.25
Probability
60%
Price
1.82
Initial publish
Apr 29, 2026, 3:39 AM GMT+2
Kickoff
Apr 29, 2026, 9:15 PM GMT+2
Revision time
Apr 29, 2026, 8:18 PM GMT+2
Halftime score
0-0
What shaped the view
- + Sporting should own territory and wide pressure, while Tondela’s 4-3-3 gives them counters but is not a pure back-five containment shape.
- + Official lineups used; Quenda starts despite the injury flag, and Sporting still have Pedro Gonçalves, Catamo, Quenda and Suárez in the attacking unit.
- + Preferred the lower Sporting handicap at 1.82 over stretching to -2.5 at 1.90. Totals were not cleaner because a 3-0 type game wins this but loses Over 3.5.
Official lineups
Sporting CP
Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Coach: —
Starting XI
- #1 · Rui Silva · GOALKEEPER
- #13 · Georgios Vagiannidis · DEFENDER
- #72 · Eduardo Quaresma · DEFENDER
- #6 · Zeno Debast · DEFENDER
- #20 · Maxi Araújo · DEFENDER
- #5 · Hidemasa Morita · MIDFIELDER
- #23 · Daniel Bragança · MIDFIELDER
- #10 · Geny Catamo · MIDFIELDER
- #8 · Pedro Gonçalves · MIDFIELDER
- #7 · Geovany Quenda · MIDFIELDER
- #97 · Luis Suárez · ATTACKER
Bench
Nuno Santos, João Virgínia, Giorgi Kochorashvili, Francisco Trincão, Ousmane Diomande, Luís Guilherme, Salvador Blopa, Rafael Nel
Tondela
Formation: 4-3-3 · Coach: —
Starting XI
- #31 · Bernardo · GOALKEEPER
- #48 · Tiago Manso · DEFENDER
- #44 · João Silva · DEFENDER
- #4 · Christian Marques · DEFENDER
- #27 · Rodrigo Conceição · DEFENDER
- #8 · Hélder Tavares · MIDFIELDER
- #15 · Yaya Sithole · MIDFIELDER
- #32 · Juanse · MIDFIELDER
- #7 · Maranhão · ATTACKER
- #16 · Rony Lopes · ATTACKER
- #70 · Moudjatovic · ATTACKER
Bench
Gabriel Souza, Bebeto, João Afonso, Joe Hodge, B. Kimpioka, Arjen van der Heide, Hugo Félix, Makan Aïko
Injuries
No injury report is currently available for this match.
Why it made the board
Sporting’s confirmed XI keeps enough width, control and penalty-box threat to justify the handicap, with Morita/Bragança feeding Pedro Gonçalves, Catamo, Quenda and Suárez. The -2.25 line is the cleaner expression of home dominance without chasing the harsher -2.5 or needing four total goals.
Main risk
Odds Trap: The obvious gulf may already be fully priced, and Tondela’s front three can counter the space behind Sporting’s full-backs; a controlled two-goal home win only gives a half-loss.
Update timeline
Current version
Lineup revision
Initial publish
Apr 29, 2026, 3:39 AM GMT+2
Revision time
Apr 29, 2026, 8:18 PM GMT+2
Score
2-2