Match detail
Sporting CP vs Tondela
Liga Portugal · 26
Match summary
vs
Liga Portugal · 26
Lineup revision status
CompleteLineup-based prediction complete
The final pre-kickoff prediction has already been re-run with the official lineups.
Current version
Lineup revisionRe-run after the official lineups were posted.
Status
Not Started
Venue
Estádio José Alvalade · Lisboa
Referee
—
Live score
0-0
Top eventPrice1.82
Asian Handicap: Sporting CP -2.25
Probability
60%
Confidence
medium
Confidence
60%Initial publish
Apr 29, 2026, 3:39 AM GMT+2
Kickoff
Apr 29, 2026, 9:15 PM GMT+2
Revision time
Apr 29, 2026, 8:18 PM GMT+2
Halftime score
0-0
What shaped the view
- Sporting should own territory and wide pressure, while Tondela’s 4-3-3 gives them counters but is not a pure back-five containment shape.
- Official lineups used; Quenda starts despite the injury flag, and Sporting still have Pedro Gonçalves, Catamo, Quenda and Suárez in the attacking unit.
- Preferred the lower Sporting handicap at 1.82 over stretching to -2.5 at 1.90. Totals were not cleaner because a 3-0 type game wins this but loses Over 3.5.
Official lineups
Sporting CP
Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Coach: —
Starting XI
- #1 · Rui Silva · GOALKEEPER
- #13 · Georgios Vagiannidis · DEFENDER
- #72 · Eduardo Quaresma · DEFENDER
- #6 · Zeno Debast · DEFENDER
- #20 · Maxi Araújo · DEFENDER
- #5 · Hidemasa Morita · MIDFIELDER
- #23 · Daniel Bragança · MIDFIELDER
- #10 · Geny Catamo · MIDFIELDER
- #8 · Pedro Gonçalves · MIDFIELDER
- #7 · Geovany Quenda · MIDFIELDER
- #97 · Luis Suárez · ATTACKER
Bench
Nuno Santos, João Virgínia, Giorgi Kochorashvili, Francisco Trincão, Ousmane Diomande, Luís Guilherme, Salvador Blopa, Rafael Nel
Tondela
Formation: 4-3-3 · Coach: —
Starting XI
- #31 · Bernardo · GOALKEEPER
- #48 · Tiago Manso · DEFENDER
- #4 · Christian Marques · DEFENDER
- #44 · João Silva · DEFENDER
- #27 · Rodrigo Conceição · DEFENDER
- #8 · Hélder Tavares · MIDFIELDER
- #15 · Yaya Sithole · MIDFIELDER
- #32 · Juanse · MIDFIELDER
- #7 · Maranhão · ATTACKER
- #16 · Rony Lopes · ATTACKER
- #70 · Moudjatovic · ATTACKER
Bench
Gabriel Souza, Bebeto, João Afonso, Joe Hodge, B. Kimpioka, Arjen van der Heide, Hugo Félix, Makan Aïko
Injuries
- Sporting CP · Fotis Ioannidis · Knee Injury · KNEE_INJURY
- Sporting CP · Ricardo Mangas · Knee Injury · KNEE_INJURY
- Sporting CP · Geovany Quenda · Foot Injury · FOOT_INJURY
- Sporting CP · Giorgi Kochorashvili · Unknown Injury · UNKNOWN_INJURY
- Sporting CP · Iván Fresneda · Muscle Injury · MUSCLE_INJURY
Why it made the board
CompleteSporting’s confirmed XI keeps enough width, control and penalty-box threat to justify the handicap, with Morita/Bragança feeding Pedro Gonçalves, Catamo, Quenda and Suárez. The -2.25 line is the cleaner expression of home dominance without chasing the harsher -2.5 or needing four total goals.
Main risk
Odds Trap: The obvious gulf may already be fully priced, and Tondela’s front three can counter the space behind Sporting’s full-backs; a controlled two-goal home win only gives a half-loss.
Update timeline
Current version
Lineup revision
Initial publish
Apr 29, 2026, 3:39 AM GMT+2
Revision time
Apr 29, 2026, 8:18 PM GMT+2
Score
Locked