Match detail

Spain vs Saudi Arabia

World Cup 2026 · group_stage

Match summary

Spain

Saudi Arabia

World Cup 2026 · group_stage

Initial pick

Lineup revision status

Complete

Lineup-based prediction complete

The final pre-kickoff prediction has already been re-run with the official lineups.

Current version

Initial pickThis is the first published version.

Top eventPrice1.90

Asian Handicap: Saudi Arabia +2.75

Probability

56%

Confidence

medium

Confidence

58%

Published

Jun 21, 2026, 5:08 PM GMT+2

Kickoff

Jun 21, 2026, 6:00 PM GMT+2

Last update

Jun 21, 2026, 8:04 PM GMT+2

Result

LOSS

What shaped the view

First-half reference lines around Spain -1.25 and O/U 1.5 point to expected Spain pressure, but Saudi’s 5-3-2 shape can slow the opening phase unless an early goal forces the game open.
Spain’s XI has strong control and width through Pedro Porro, Cucurella, Lamine Yamal, Baena and Olmo, with Nico Williams/Ferran Torres as late attackers; Saudi Arabia counter with a 5-3-2, three central midfielders and two forwards to keep a direct outlet rather than only absorbing pressure.
Closest rejected family is Goals Over/Under: Under 3.5 is viable, but it depends on Saudi scoring staying near zero and Spain not converting late bench pressure into a fourth goal; Away +2.75 better captures Spain dominance while still protecting against a 2-0 or 3-0 type game. Home -2.75 needs a near-perfect margin, and BTTS Yes lacks a stable enough Saudi high-quality-shot path beyond counters.

Official lineups

Official lineups are not posted yet. This panel updates when the feed goes live.

Injuries

No injury report is currently available for this match.

Why it made the board

Complete

This is an efficient market and the edge is thin, but Saudi +2.75 is the cleanest eligible option. Spain should control territory, yet asking them to clear a 3-goal Asian line after a 0-0 opener is fragile: Saudi’s supplied 5-3-2 gives box numbers, Al-Khaibari/Nasser/Musab can screen central access, and the front two of Firas Al-Buraikan plus Salem Al-Dawsari provide a concrete counter/out-ball cover path. Spain’s bench can raise late tempo, but a 3-goal Spain win is only a half loss on +2.75 and anything inside two goals covers fully.

Main risk

Tactical Counter: Early Spain goal could break Saudi’s block and expose the +2.75 to late substitution-driven pressure.

Update timeline