Match detail

Spain vs Austria

World Cup 2026 · round_of_32

Match summary

Spain

Austria

World Cup 2026 · round_of_32

Initial pick

Lineup revision status

Complete

Lineup-based prediction complete

The final pre-kickoff prediction has already been re-run with the official lineups.

Current version

Initial pickThis is the first published version.

Top eventPrice1.81

Asian Handicap: Spain -1.5

Probability

56%

Confidence

medium

Confidence

58%

Published

Jul 2, 2026, 7:39 PM GMT+2

Kickoff

Jul 2, 2026, 9:00 PM GMT+2

Last update

Jul 2, 2026, 11:20 PM GMT+2

Result

WIN

What shaped the view

First-half reference markets point to Spain early pressure but not a guaranteed fast total. Expect controlled Spanish possession before the first goal, then higher transition and extension risk if Austria must chase.
Spain’s XI has Rodri-Pedri control, Olmo between lines, Yamal/Baena width and Oyarzabal as the central finisher, with Ferran Torres, Borja Iglesias, Grimaldo, Gavi, Merino and Fabián Ruiz giving strong late attacking/control options. Austria have Alaba-Danso and a hard-working midfield, but their bench leans toward target-forward chase options rather than sustained control if forced open.
Asian Handicap was preferred over Goals Over/Under: Over 2.75 needs either Austria contribution or a 4-goal Spain push for full strength, while Spain -1.5 also wins on a controlled 2-0. Under 2.75 lost the comparison because knockout caution helps early, but a first Spain goal can force Austria into a chase and expose late margin risk. This is regulation-time only; Spain advancement strength is not treated as extra-time safety.

Official lineups

Official lineups are not posted yet. This panel updates when the feed goes live.

Injuries

No injury report is currently available for this match.

Why it made the board

Complete

Spain -1.5 is the strongest eligible side-family option. The lineup gives Spain multiple margin-building routes: midfield control through Rodri and Pedri, wide service from Yamal/Porro and Baena/Cucurella, Olmo’s central occupation, plus late bench depth to keep pressure high. Austria’s compact 4-2-3-1 can keep this efficient for long spells, but if they concede first their Gregoritsch/Arnautović/Kalajdžić chase profile can open space behind the midfield rather than simply protect +1.5. Closest rejected family was Goals Over/Under: Over 2.75 is live but more dependent on the exact goal mix, while Under is fragile to late knockout chase/collapse risk.

Main risk

Tactical Counter: Knockout regulation markets are fragile: a cautious Spain at 1-0, Austria set-piece resistance, or an Austrian first goal would make a two-goal cover difficult despite Spain’s stronger control profile.

Update timeline