Match detail
Southampton vs Ipswich Town
Championship · 40
Match summary
vs
Championship · 40
Lineup revision status
CompleteLineup-based prediction complete
The final pre-kickoff prediction has already been re-run with the official lineups.
Current version
Lineup revisionRe-run after the official lineups were posted.
Status
Full Time
Venue
St. Mary's Stadium · Southampton
Referee
—
Live score
2-2
Top event
Goals Over/Under: Over 2.5
Probability
58%
Price
1.82
Initial publish
Apr 28, 2026, 4:14 PM GMT+2
Kickoff
Apr 28, 2026, 8:45 PM GMT+2
Revision time
Apr 28, 2026, 7:48 PM GMT+2
Halftime score
0-0
What shaped the view
- + Width on both sides should create crossing and transition chances, with Over 2.5 preferred over stretching to 2.75 or 3.0.
- + Official XIs are in: both set up 4-2-3-1 with natural wide players and a central striker, so neither side looks built purely to sit in.
- + The -0.25 handicap prices are close to coin-flip territory, making the side angle less clean than the goals line.
Official lineups
Southampton
Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Coach: —
Starting XI
- #41 · Daniel Peretz · GOALKEEPER
- #14 · James Bree · DEFENDER
- #6 · Taylor Harwood-Bellis · DEFENDER
- #15 · Nathan Wood · DEFENDER
- #3 · Ryan Manning · DEFENDER
- #24 · Shea Emmanuel Charles · MIDFIELDER
- #20 · Caspar Jander · MIDFIELDER
- #18 · Tom Fellows · MIDFIELDER
- #10 · Finn Azaz · MIDFIELDER
- #13 · Leo Scienza · MIDFIELDER
- #9 · Cyle Larin · ATTACKER
Bench
Ross Stewart, Joshua Quarshie, Cameron Archer, Samuel Edozie, George Long, Oriol Romeu, Welington, Elias Jelert
Ipswich Town
Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Coach: —
Starting XI
- #28 · Christian Walton · GOALKEEPER
- #19 · Darnell Furlong · DEFENDER
- #26 · Dara O'Shea · DEFENDER
- #24 · Jacob Greaves · DEFENDER
- #3 · Leif Davis · DEFENDER
- #5 · Azor Matusiwa · MIDFIELDER
- #6 · Dan Neil · MIDFIELDER
- #7 · Wes Burns · MIDFIELDER
- #32 · Marcelino Núñez · MIDFIELDER
- #11 · Jaden Philogene · MIDFIELDER
- #31 · Iván Azón · ATTACKER
Bench
Alex Palmer, Cédric Kipré, George Hirst, Jens Cajuste, Ben Johnson, Kasey McAteer, Chuba Akpom, Anis Mehmeti
Injuries
- Southampton · Mads Roerslev · Achilles tendon problems · ACHILLES_TENDON_PROBLEMS
- Ipswich Town · Conor Townsend · Cruciate Ligament Injury · CRUCIATE_LIGAMENT_INJURY
- Ipswich Town · David Button · Calf Injury · CALF_INJURY
- Ipswich Town · Ashley Young · Hip Injury · HIP_INJURY
- Southampton · Jack Stephens · Calf Injury · CALF_INJURY
- Southampton · Alex McCarthy · Hand Injury · HAND_INJURY
- Southampton · Gavin Bazunu · Unknown Injury · UNKNOWN_INJURY
Why it made the board
The side market is too evenly split, while both official lineups point to usable width, No.10 support and enough attacking balance for chances at both ends. Over 2.5 is the cleaner expression at 1.82.
Main risk
Tactical Counter: Failure modes: the mirrored 4-2-3-1s could cancel each other centrally and settle into a 1-1 rhythm; the recent H2H goal pattern may also regress.
Update timeline
Current version
Lineup revision
Initial publish
Apr 28, 2026, 4:14 PM GMT+2
Revision time
Apr 28, 2026, 7:48 PM GMT+2
Score
2-2