Match detail

Scotland vs Brazil

World Cup 2026 · group_stage

Match summary

Scotland

Brazil

World Cup 2026 · group_stage

Initial pick

Lineup revision status

Complete

Lineup-based prediction complete

The final pre-kickoff prediction has already been re-run with the official lineups.

Current version

Initial pickThis is the first published version.

Top eventPrice1.95

Asian Handicap: Scotland +1.5

Probability

53%

Confidence

medium

Confidence

58%

Published

Jun 24, 2026, 11:02 PM GMT+2

Kickoff

Jun 25, 2026, 12:00 AM GMT+2

Last update

Jun 25, 2026, 2:08 AM GMT+2

Result

LOSS

What shaped the view

First-half reference markets point to Brazil pressure but not an automatic early blowout: Scotland +0.75 FH at 1.77 and FH Under 1 at 2.10 suggest the opening script can stay controlled before substitutions increase volatility.
Scotland’s 4-4-1-1 gives them a compact midfield screen with McLean, Ferguson, McGinn and McTominay, plus Robertson/Patterson for outlets and set-piece delivery. Brazil have the higher ceiling in a 4-3-3 and a very strong attacking bench, but Scotland also have late physical forwards available through Dykes, Adams, Stewart and Hirst if chasing or defending territory.
Asian Handicap was kept ahead of totals/BTTS because Brazil -1.5 needs a clean multi-goal separation, while Scotland +1.5 has concrete cover paths through compact shape, set pieces, and a draw/one-goal-loss qualification script. Table context matters: Brazil are on 4 pts and a draw gives strong top-2 control, while Scotland on 3 pts can still advance with a draw into the best-third race but a loss creates final-table vulnerability. A Scotland win would give automatic control; a Brazil win likely secures 1st, but Brazil do not have to chase recklessly because 1st, 2nd, and even 3rd Group C all have different fixed R32 paths. Closest rejected family: Goals Under 2.75, which fits Scotland’s compact setup, but it is more exposed if Scotland concede first and have to open up late.

Official lineups

Official lineups are not posted yet. This panel updates when the feed goes live.

Injuries

No injury report is currently available for this match.

Why it made the board

Complete

Pick Scotland +1.5 at 1.95 in an efficient Matchday 3 market. Brazil have superior width, ball-winning and late attackers, but the handicap asks them to win by 2+, and Scotland’s XI has enough resistance: a 4-4-1-1 block, McTominay/McGinn second-ball presence, Robertson delivery, and multiple bench target forwards provide an underdog cover path beyond simply sitting deep. Qualification swing reduces reckless favorite-extension certainty: Brazil’s draw still gives 5 pts and likely automatic top-2 control, while Scotland drawing reaches 4 pts and keeps either top-2 hope or best-third-place viability; if Scotland concede first, they must chase, but their set-piece and direct bench options make late collapse less automatic than the away -1.5 price implies.

Main risk

Tactical Counter: Brazil’s bench can sharply raise the margin if Scotland chase after conceding, and Morocco vs Haiti can alter late incentives around goal difference and group position.

Update timeline