Match detail
Roma vs Fiorentina
Serie A · 35
Match summary
vs
Serie A · 35
Lineup revision status
CompleteLineup-based prediction complete
The final pre-kickoff prediction has already been re-run with the official lineups.
Current version
Lineup revisionRe-run after the official lineups were posted.
Status
Full Time
Venue
Stadio Olimpico · Roma
Referee
—
Live score
4-0
Top event
Goals Over/Under: Under 2.5
Probability
57%
Price
2.00
Initial publish
May 4, 2026, 7:18 AM GMT+2
Kickoff
May 4, 2026, 8:45 PM GMT+2
Revision time
May 4, 2026, 8:23 PM GMT+2
Halftime score
3-0
What shaped the view
- + Both teams have wide runners, but the central finishing profile is weakened enough to expect more control than chaos unless an early goal breaks the game.
- + Official XIs keep the attacking downgrade live: Roma start without Dovbyk and Pellegrini, with Dybala only on the bench; Fiorentina are also without Kean and Piccoli, leaving no natural centre-forward profile.
- + Best side alternative was Roma -1/Away +1, but Roma -1 asks for margin from a reshuffled attack, while Fiorentina +1 fights Roma’s Europe-race home pressure. The total is the cleaner expression.
Official lineups
Roma
Formation: 3-4-2-1 · Coach: —
Starting XI
- #99 · Mile Svilar · GOALKEEPER
- #23 · Gianluca Mancini · DEFENDER
- #5 · Evan Ndicka · DEFENDER
- #22 · Mario Hermoso · DEFENDER
- #19 · Zeki Çelik · MIDFIELDER
- #61 · Niccolò Pisilli · MIDFIELDER
- #17 · Manu Koné · MIDFIELDER
- #43 · Wesley · MIDFIELDER
- #18 · Matías Soulé · ATTACKER
- #4 · Bryan Cristante · ATTACKER
- #14 · Donyell Malen · ATTACKER
Bench
Devyne Rensch, Angeliño, Konstantinos Tsimikas, Lorenzo Venturino, Paulo Dybala, Jan Ziolkowski, Giorgio De Marzi, Robinio Vaz
Fiorentina
Formation: 4-3-3 · Coach: —
Starting XI
- #43 · David de Gea · GOALKEEPER
- #2 · Dodô · DEFENDER
- #5 · Marin Pongracic · DEFENDER
- #6 · Luca Ranieri · DEFENDER
- #21 · Robin Gosens · DEFENDER
- #4 · Marco Brescianini · MIDFIELDER
- #44 · Nicolò Fagioli · MIDFIELDER
- #27 · Cher Ndour · MIDFIELDER
- #17 · Jack Harrison · ATTACKER
- #10 · Albert Gudmundsson · ATTACKER
- #19 · Manor Solomon · ATTACKER
Bench
Luca Lezzerini, Daniele Rugani, Rolando Mandragora, Pietro Comuzzo, Jacopo Fazzini, Oliver Christensen, Eddy Kouadio, Riccardo Braschi
Injuries
- Fiorentina · Moise Kean · Muscle Injury · MUSCLE_INJURY
- Fiorentina · Niccolò Fortini · Muscle Injury · MUSCLE_INJURY
- Roma · Artem Dovbyk · Hamstring Injury · HAMSTRING_INJURY
- Roma · Lorenzo Pellegrini · Muscle Injury · MUSCLE_INJURY
- Roma · Evan Ferguson · Ankle Problems · ANKLE_PROBLEMS
- Fiorentina · Roberto Piccoli · Muscle Injury · MUSCLE_INJURY
- Roma · Bryan Zaragoza · Knee Injury · KNEE_INJURY
- Roma · Neil El Aynaoui · Yellow Card Suspension · YELLOW_CARD_SUSPENSION
Why it made the board
The official lineups support the anchor: both sides are missing their main penalty-box options, and Roma’s creative ceiling is lower without Pellegrini/Dovbyk. At 2.00, Under 2.5 is still the cleanest angle over forcing a handicap side.
Main risk
Tactical Counter: Tactical Counter: Fiorentina’s wide front and aggressive full-backs can turn this into transition spells; an early away goal would drag Roma into a chase script.
Update timeline
Current version
Lineup revision
Initial publish
May 4, 2026, 7:18 AM GMT+2
Revision time
May 4, 2026, 8:23 PM GMT+2
Score
4-0