Match detail
Real Madrid vs Girona
La Liga · 31
Match summary
vs
La Liga · 31
Lineup revision status
CompleteLineup-based prediction complete
The final pre-kickoff prediction has already been re-run with the official lineups.
Current version
Lineup revisionRe-run after the official lineups were posted.
Status
Full Time
Venue
Estadio Santiago Bernabéu · Madrid
Referee
—
Live score
1-1
Top event
Asian Handicap - Real Madrid -1.5
Probability
59%
Price
1.77
Initial publish
Apr 9, 2026, 11:54 PM GMT+2
Kickoff
Apr 10, 2026, 9:00 PM GMT+2
Revision time
Apr 10, 2026, 8:40 PM GMT+2
Halftime score
0-0
What shaped the view
- + Madrid should own territory and attack the wide channels, and Girona's 4-3-3 can leave transition space when they lose the ball.
- + Madrid start Mbappé, Vinicius and Brahim with Valverde, Camavinga and Bellingham behind them; Girona's XI looks less mobile through the middle.
- + The home win is too short, while -1.75 and higher start pricing in a rout. -1.5 is the cleanest sellable line.
Official lineups
Girona
Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Coach: —
Starting XI
- #13 · Paulo Gazzaniga · GOALKEEPER
- #4 · Arnau Martínez · DEFENDER
- #16 · Alejandro Francés · DEFENDER
- #12 · Vitor Reis · DEFENDER
- #24 · Álex Moreno · DEFENDER
- #23 · Iván Martín · MIDFIELDER
- #20 · Axel Witsel · MIDFIELDER
- #15 · Viktor Tsygankov · MIDFIELDER
- #11 · Thomas Lemar · MIDFIELDER
- #18 · Azzedine Ounahi · MIDFIELDER
- #14 · Claudio Echeverri · ATTACKER
Bench
Rubén Blanco, Hugo Rincón, Joel Roca, David López, Cristhian Stuani, Fran Beltrán, Abel Ruiz, Bryan Gil
Real Madrid
Formation: 4-4-2 · Coach: —
Starting XI
- #13 · Andriy Lunin · GOALKEEPER
- #2 · Daniel Carvajal · DEFENDER
- #3 · Éder Militão · DEFENDER
- #17 · Raúl Asencio · DEFENDER
- #20 · Fran García · DEFENDER
- #8 · Federico Valverde · MIDFIELDER
- #5 · Jude Bellingham · MIDFIELDER
- #6 · Eduardo Camavinga · MIDFIELDER
- #21 · Brahim Díaz · MIDFIELDER
- #10 · Kylian Mbappé · ATTACKER
- #7 · Vinicius Junior · ATTACKER
Bench
David Alaba, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Arda Güler, Gonzalo García, Dani Ceballos, Ferland Mendy, Dean Huijsen, Fran González
Injuries
- Girona · Vladyslav Vanat · Unknown Injury · UNKNOWN_INJURY
- Girona · Juan Carlos · Unknown Injury · UNKNOWN_INJURY
- Girona · Marc-André ter Stegen · Unknown Injury · UNKNOWN_INJURY
- Real Madrid · Thibaut Courtois · Thigh Muscle Strain · THIGH_MUSCLE_STRAIN
- Girona · Portu · Cruciate Ligament Injury · CRUCIATE_LIGAMENT_INJURY
- Real Madrid · Rodrygo · Unknown Injury · UNKNOWN_INJURY
- Real Madrid · Franco Mastantuono · Yellow Card Suspension · YELLOW_CARD_SUSPENSION
- Real Madrid · Joan Martínez · Unknown Injury · UNKNOWN_INJURY
- Girona · Ricard Artero · Broken Ankle · BROKEN_ANKLE
- Real Madrid · Víctor Valdepeñas · Thigh Muscle Strain · THIGH_MUSCLE_STRAIN
Why it made the board
The official XIs point to a Madrid control game with more pace, more ball-winning and much stronger final-third quality. Against Girona's technical but lighter central setup, a two-goal home margin is the clearest mainstream angle.
Main risk
Odds Trap: Main danger is the obvious favorite-cover tax: Girona can exploit space behind the full-backs, or Madrid can dominate and still land in a 1-0 or 2-1 script if finishing regresses.
Update timeline
Current version
Lineup revision
Initial publish
Apr 9, 2026, 11:54 PM GMT+2
Revision time
Apr 10, 2026, 8:40 PM GMT+2
Score
Locked