Match detail
Real Madrid vs Deportivo Alavés
La Liga · 33
Match summary
vs
La Liga · 33
Lineup revision status
CompleteLineup-based prediction complete
The final pre-kickoff prediction has already been re-run with the official lineups.
Current version
Lineup revisionRe-run after the official lineups were posted.
Status
Full Time
Venue
Estadio Santiago Bernabéu · Madrid
Referee
—
Live score
2-1
Top event
Goals Over/Under: Under 3.5
Probability
60%
Price
1.89
Initial publish
Apr 21, 2026, 3:29 AM GMT+2
Kickoff
Apr 21, 2026, 9:30 PM GMT+2
Revision time
Apr 21, 2026, 8:33 PM GMT+2
Halftime score
1-0
What shaped the view
- + Madrid should control territory, but this prices more like managed dominance than a guaranteed shootout.
- + Official lineups are now confirmed. The lineup review completed, but the original market was retained because the alternative required a cross-market change.
- + The home win is priced out and the -1.5/-1.75 range asks for margin; under 3.5 keeps the common 2-0 and 3-0 home scripts alive.
Official lineups
Deportivo Alavés
Formation: 5-3-2 · Coach: —
Starting XI
- #1 · Antonio Sivera · GOALKEEPER
- #7 · Ángel Pérez · DEFENDER
- #17 · Jonny Otto · DEFENDER
- #14 · Nahuel Tenaglia · DEFENDER
- #24 · Victor Parada · DEFENDER
- #3 · Youssef Enríquez · DEFENDER
- #18 · Jon Guridi · MIDFIELDER
- #8 · Antonio Blanco · MIDFIELDER
- #4 · Denis Suárez · MIDFIELDER
- #11 · Toni Martínez · ATTACKER
- #15 · Lucas Boyé · ATTACKER
Bench
Jon Pacheco, Ander Guevara, Mariano Díaz, Carles Aleñá, Raúl Fernández, Ville Koski, Pablo Ibáñez, Calebe
Real Madrid
Formation: 4-4-2 · Coach: —
Starting XI
- #13 · Andriy Lunin · GOALKEEPER
- #12 · Trent Alexander-Arnold · DEFENDER
- #3 · Éder Militão · DEFENDER
- #24 · Dean Huijsen · DEFENDER
- #18 · Álvaro Carreras · DEFENDER
- #8 · Federico Valverde · MIDFIELDER
- #5 · Jude Bellingham · MIDFIELDER
- #14 · Aurélien Tchouaméni · MIDFIELDER
- #15 · Arda Güler · MIDFIELDER
- #10 · Kylian Mbappé · ATTACKER
- #7 · Vinicius Junior · ATTACKER
Bench
Daniel Carvajal, David Alaba, Eduardo Camavinga, Gonzalo García, Dani Ceballos, Fran García, Brahim Díaz, Antonio Rüdiger
Injuries
- Real Madrid · Rodrygo · Unknown Injury · UNKNOWN_INJURY
- Deportivo Alavés · Carlos Protesoni · Leg Injury · LEG_INJURY
- Deportivo Alavés · Facundo Garcés · Suspension Through Sports Court · SUSPENSION_THROUGH_SPORTS_COURT
- Real Madrid · Thibaut Courtois · Thigh Muscle Strain · THIGH_MUSCLE_STRAIN
- Deportivo Alavés · Abde Rebbach · Yellow Card Suspension · YELLOW_CARD_SUSPENSION
- Real Madrid · Raúl Asencio · Doubtful · DOUBTFUL
Why it made the board
Official lineups are now confirmed and the latest odds were re-checked. The lineup review completed, but the evidence was not strong enough to justify replacing this angle with a cross-market alternative, so the original market stayed on the board.
Main risk
Tactical Counter: An early Alavés goal or an early Madrid breakthrough can open the game up and push it into a 3-1 or 4-0 scoreline.
Update timeline
Current version
Lineup revision
Initial publish
Apr 21, 2026, 3:29 AM GMT+2
Revision time
Apr 21, 2026, 8:33 PM GMT+2
Score
2-1