Match detail
RB Leipzig vs FC Union Berlin
Bundesliga · 31
Match summary
vs
Bundesliga · 31
Lineup revision status
CompleteLineup-based prediction complete
The final pre-kickoff prediction has already been re-run with the official lineups.
Current version
Lineup revisionRe-run after the official lineups were posted.
Status
Full Time
Venue
Red Bull Arena · Leipzig
Referee
—
Live score
3-1
Top event
Goals Over/Under: Under 3.25
Probability
58%
Price
1.90
Initial publish
Apr 23, 2026, 11:59 PM GMT+2
Kickoff
Apr 24, 2026, 8:30 PM GMT+2
Revision time
Apr 24, 2026, 7:33 PM GMT+2
Halftime score
2-0
What shaped the view
- + This looks more like a controlled home script than an automatic shootout unless Leipzig score very early.
- + Schlager starts and Leipzig still have real wing pace plus attacking bench depth; Union stay in a 3-4-2-1 with Burke/Schäfer behind Ilic.
- + Leipzig are priced as clear favorites, but the eligible side line starts at -1.25, which asks for margin rather than just control.
Official lineups
RB Leipzig
Formation: 4-3-3 · Coach: —
Starting XI
- #26 · Maarten Vandevoordt · GOALKEEPER
- #17 · Ridle Baku · DEFENDER
- #4 · Willi Orbán · DEFENDER
- #5 · El Chadaille Bitshiabu · DEFENDER
- #35 · Max Finkgräfe · DEFENDER
- #20 · Assan Ouédraogo · MIDFIELDER
- #24 · Xaver Schlager · MIDFIELDER
- #14 · Christoph Baumgartner · MIDFIELDER
- #49 · Yan Diomande · ATTACKER
- #40 · Rômulo · ATTACKER
- #7 · Antonio Nusa · ATTACKER
Bench
Péter Gulácsi, Johan Bakayoko, Brajan Gruda, Conrad Harder, Lukas Klostermann, Kosta Nedeljkovic, Tidiam Gomis, Andrija Maksimovic
FC Union Berlin
Formation: 3-5-2 · Coach: —
Starting XI
- #1 · Frederik Rönnow · GOALKEEPER
- #5 · Danilho Doekhi · DEFENDER
- #14 · Leopold Querfeld · DEFENDER
- #4 · Diogo Leite · DEFENDER
- #28 · Christopher Trimmel · MIDFIELDER
- #13 · András Schäfer · MIDFIELDER
- #8 · Rani Khedira · MIDFIELDER
- #19 · Janik Haberer · MIDFIELDER
- #15 · Tom Rothe · MIDFIELDER
- #7 · Oliver Burke · ATTACKER
- #23 · Andrej Ilic · ATTACKER
Bench
Aljoscha Kemlein, Livan Burcu, Ilyas Ansah, Josip Juranovic, Tim Skarke, Carl Klaus, Alex Král, Stanley Nsoki
Injuries
- RB Leipzig · David Raum · Groin Injury · GROIN_INJURY
- RB Leipzig · Kosta Nedeljkovic · Back Injury · BACK_INJURY
- FC Union Berlin · David Preu · Unknown Injury · UNKNOWN_INJURY
- RB Leipzig · Viggo Gebel · Cruciate Ligament Tear · CRUCIATE_LIGAMENT_TEAR
- RB Leipzig · Ezechiel Banzuzi · Knee Injury · KNEE_INJURY
- FC Union Berlin · Matheo Raab · Broken Hand · BROKEN_HAND
- FC Union Berlin · Woo-yeong Jeong · Unknown Injury · UNKNOWN_INJURY
- FC Union Berlin · Livan Burcu · Unknown Injury · UNKNOWN_INJURY
- RB Leipzig · Leopold Zingerle · Unknown Injury · UNKNOWN_INJURY
- RB Leipzig · Suleiman Sani · Ankle Injury · ANKLE_INJURY
Why it made the board
Leipzig are priced to win, but the sellable handicap is already aggressive. Under 3.25 is the cleaner angle because 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and even 3-0 all fit this matchup better than asking Leipzig to clear a big margin.
Main risk
Tactical Counter: The under is vulnerable if Leipzig score early and force Union to open up, or if Leipzig finish well above expectation and turn control into a 3-1 or 4-0 game.
Update timeline
Current version
Lineup revision
Initial publish
Apr 23, 2026, 11:59 PM GMT+2
Revision time
Apr 24, 2026, 7:33 PM GMT+2
Score
3-1