Match detail
Paris Saint Germain vs FC Bayern München
Champions League · Semi-finals
Match summary
vs
Champions League · Semi-finals
Lineup revision status
CompleteLineup-based prediction complete
The final pre-kickoff prediction has already been re-run with the official lineups.
Current version
Lineup revisionRe-run after the official lineups were posted.
Status
Full Time
Venue
Parc des Princes · Paris
Referee
—
Live score
5-4
Top event
Goals Over/Under: Under 3.5
Probability
56%
Price
1.85
Initial publish
Apr 28, 2026, 4:14 PM GMT+2
Kickoff
Apr 28, 2026, 9:00 PM GMT+2
Revision time
Apr 28, 2026, 8:03 PM GMT+2
Halftime score
3-2
What shaped the view
- + There is obvious wide pace, but both midfields have enough control to keep this from needing four goals to cash.
- + Official XIs are strong: PSG’s listed flags on Nuno Mendes, Vitinha and Doué are overridden by starts, while Bayern’s main attacking spine is intact.
- + The -0.25 handicap options are noisy for a semi-final between two elite sides; Under 3.5 gives the cleaner cushion at a playable 1.85.
Official lineups
FC Bayern München
Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Coach: —
Starting XI
- #1 · Manuel Neuer · GOALKEEPER
- #44 · Josip Stanisic · DEFENDER
- #2 · Dayot Upamecano · DEFENDER
- #4 · Jonathan Tah · DEFENDER
- #19 · Alphonso Davies · DEFENDER
- #6 · Joshua Kimmich · MIDFIELDER
- #45 · Aleksandar Pavlovic · MIDFIELDER
- #17 · Michael Olise · MIDFIELDER
- #10 · Jamal Musiala · MIDFIELDER
- #14 · Luis Díaz · MIDFIELDER
- #9 · Harry Kane · ATTACKER
Bench
Min-jae Kim, Leon Goretzka, Nicolas Jackson, Hiroki Ito, Sven Ulreich, Konrad Laimer, Deniz Ofli, Jonas Urbig
Paris Saint Germain
Formation: 4-3-3 · Coach: —
Starting XI
- #39 · Matvey Safonov · GOALKEEPER
- #2 · Achraf Hakimi · DEFENDER
- #5 · Marquinhos · DEFENDER
- #51 · Willian Pacho · DEFENDER
- #25 · Nuno Mendes · DEFENDER
- #33 · Warren Zaïre-Emery · MIDFIELDER
- #17 · Vitinha · MIDFIELDER
- #87 · João Neves · MIDFIELDER
- #14 · Désiré Doué · ATTACKER
- #10 · Ousmane Dembélé · ATTACKER
- #7 · Khvicha Kvaratskhelia · ATTACKER
Bench
Lucas Beraldo, Ilya Zabarnyi, Fabián Ruiz, Gonçalo Ramos, Kang-in Lee, Lucas Hernández, Senny Mayulu, Pedro Fernández
Injuries
- FC Bayern München · Cassiano Kiala · Ankle Injury · ANKLE_INJURY
- FC Bayern München · Lennart Karl · Muscle Injury · MUSCLE_INJURY
- FC Bayern München · Tom Bischof · Calf Injury · CALF_INJURY
- FC Bayern München · Bara Sapoko Ndiaye · No Eligibility · NO_ELIGIBILITY
- FC Bayern München · David Santos Daiber · Muscle Injury · MUSCLE_INJURY
- FC Bayern München · Leon Klanac · Hamstring Injury · HAMSTRING_INJURY
- Paris Saint Germain · Quentin Ndjantou · Unknown Injury · UNKNOWN_INJURY
- FC Bayern München · Raphaël Guerreiro · Unknown Injury · UNKNOWN_INJURY
- FC Bayern München · Serge Gnabry · Thigh Muscle Strain · THIGH_MUSCLE_STRAIN
Why it made the board
Picking a side at these AH prices is thin, while Under 3.5 still survives a 2-1 either way. With Kimmich/Pavlovic and Vitinha/Neves/Warren in place, the game can have controlled spells despite the attacking names.
Main risk
Tactical Counter: Fails if an early goal opens the full-back lanes and the Kane/Musiala/Dembélé/Kvaratskhelia transition quality turns this into a 2-2 type match; finishing variance is the secondary danger.
Update timeline
Current version
Lineup revision
Initial publish
Apr 28, 2026, 4:14 PM GMT+2
Revision time
Apr 28, 2026, 8:03 PM GMT+2
Score
5-4