Match detail

Paraguay vs France

World Cup 2026 · round_of_16

Match summary

Paraguay

France

World Cup 2026 · round_of_16

Initial pick

Lineup revision status

Complete

Lineup-based prediction complete

The final pre-kickoff prediction has already been re-run with the official lineups.

Current version

Initial pickThis is the first published version.

Top eventPrice1.80

Asian Handicap: France -1.75

Probability

56%

Confidence

medium

Confidence

58%

Published

Jul 4, 2026, 9:49 PM GMT+2

Kickoff

Jul 4, 2026, 11:00 PM GMT+2

Last update

Jul 5, 2026, 1:09 AM GMT+2

Result

LOSS

What shaped the view

First-half reference markets point toward early France pressure, but this is still a Round of 16 regulation-time handicap, not a team-to-advance bet. Knockout caution keeps the edge thin.
France's 4-2-3-1 has width through Dembélé and Barcola, inside service from Olise, Mbappé as the main finisher, and late attacking depth with Cherki, Thuram, Doué and Mateta. Paraguay's 5-4-1 gives box protection, but Enciso can become isolated as the first outlet.
Asian Handicap was evaluated first and preferred. Home +1.75 has a cover path through Paraguay's compact back five, Almirón/Enciso counters and set-piece bodies, but that weakens if they trail and must open up. Closest rejected family was Goals Over/Under: Over 2.75 lost because a controlled 2-0 France win half-wins -1.75 but loses the total, while Under 2.75 fails the chase/collapse check once Paraguay need to attack.

Official lineups

Official lineups are not posted yet. This panel updates when the feed goes live.

Injuries

No injury report is currently available for this match.

Why it made the board

Complete

France have the cleaner side-family angle at the eligible price. Their lineup has multiple margin-building routes: wide 1v1 pressure, Olise between the lines, Mbappé attacking the box, and a strong late bench if Paraguay chase. The market is efficient and -1.75 is margin-sensitive, but Paraguay's lone-striker 5-4-1 can be pinned long enough for France to turn territorial control into a two-goal-plus result.

Main risk

Tactical Counter: Away -1.75 needs a regulation-time margin: a two-goal France win only half-wins, and a controlled one-goal knockout script loses. Paraguay's counters and late forward substitutes also create set-piece and transition risk.

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