Paraguay vs Australia

Current version

What shaped the view

• First-half references lean cautious: FH Under 0.75 is shorter than FH Over, and Australia +0.25 benefits from a controlled start plus Paraguay’s need to open only if the match state turns against them.
• Paraguay's 5-4-1 gives protection but needs Gabriel Ávalos isolated unless Enciso/Diego Gómez connect; Australia’s 3-4-2-1 has Irvine/O'Neill central stability, Bos/Behich width, and late runners such as Mabil, Velupillay, Touré or Yengi to preserve counter threat if Paraguay chase.
• Asian Handicap was kept ahead of the 1.75 total: Under relies on a fragile low-event script if Paraguay concede first, while Over needs cleaner finishing volume than the XIs guarantee. Current table: USA 6, Australia 3 GD0, Paraguay 3 GD-2, Türkiye 0; Australia’s draw likely secures automatic top-2 as runner-up, a win can challenge group position/bracket path, and a loss risks third-place uncertainty. Paraguay’s win likely takes top-2 control, draw leaves a 4-point third-place route with weaker GD, and loss leaves a poor best-third profile, so their late chase risk supports Australia +0.25 more than BTTS Yes.