Match detail

Norway vs France

World Cup 2026 · group_stage

Match summary

Norway

France

World Cup 2026 · group_stage

Initial pick

Lineup revision status

Complete

Lineup-based prediction complete

The final pre-kickoff prediction has already been re-run with the official lineups.

Current version

Initial pickThis is the first published version.

Top eventPrice1.82

Asian Handicap: France -1.25

Probability

56%

Confidence

medium

Confidence

58%

Published

Jun 26, 2026, 7:45 PM GMT+2

Kickoff

Jun 26, 2026, 9:00 PM GMT+2

Last update

Jun 26, 2026, 10:58 PM GMT+2

Result

WIN

What shaped the view

Reference first-half odds lean to France pressure and a live opening phase: Away -0.25 FH and Over 1.25 FH both point to early pace. Matchday 3 escalation is moderate, not desperate: France can manage a draw, but Norway need a win to top the group, so conceding first can force earlier risk-taking and widen late-margin risk.
France start a full pressure front with Mbappé, Dembélé, Olise and Doué ahead of Koné/Tchouaméni, plus strong late attackers in Barcola, Thuram, Mateta and Cherki. Norway’s XI leaves several major ball-progression and finishing options on the bench, so their resistance relies more on Bobb/Schjelderup outlets and Strand Larsen holding play than sustained control.
Group I table: both teams are already automatic top-2 qualifiers on 6 points; France lead Norway by GD +5 to +4, so a draw keeps France 1st, a Norway win flips Norway to 1st, and a France win confirms France 1st. Loss only changes 1st/2nd, not qualification; the R32 path changes materially, with Group I winner facing a 3rd-place team from C/D/F/G/H and runner-up facing Runner-up Group E. The closest rejected family is Goals Over/Under: Over 3.25 has tempo support but needs both efficiency and Norway contribution, while Under 3.25 is exposed if Norway chase after conceding. BTTS No was also rejected because Norway have enough wide/counter and bench scoring routes to make a clean sheet price fragile.

Official lineups

Official lineups are not posted yet. This panel updates when the feed goes live.

Injuries

No injury report is currently available for this match.

Why it made the board

Complete

France -1.25 is the strongest eligible side-market despite an efficient price: France’s starting XI has clearer territory, pace and late bench depth, while Norway’s rotated-looking XI weakens the underdog cover path under sustained pressure. Qualification swing matters: both are through, but Norway need a win for 1st and a draw leaves France top, so if France score first Norway are more likely to open up than simply protect +1.25, increasing 2+ goal cover potential. Risk is that France do not need margin and can accept first place via a draw, making this a thin-edge rather than dominant favorite spot.

Main risk

Regression: Push/half-loss risk is meaningful: -1.25 needs a 2+ goal France win for full profit, while a one-goal win is half loss. France’s draw value and possible game management after leading are the main threats.

Update timeline