Match detail

Newcastle vs Sunderland

Premier League · Regular Season - 31

Match summary

Newcastle

Sunderland

Premier League · Regular Season - 31

Initial pick

Lineup revision status

Complete

Lineup-based prediction complete

The final pre-kickoff prediction has already been re-run with the official lineups.

Current version

Initial pickThis is the first published version.

Top eventPrice1.69

Match Winner - Newcastle

Probability

61%

Confidence

medium

Confidence

61%

Published

Mar 22, 2026, 12:45 AM GMT+1

Kickoff

Mar 22, 2026, 1:00 PM GMT+1

Last update

Mar 22, 2026, 12:04 PM GMT+1

Result

PENDING

What shaped the view

Newcastle should control more territory at home, with Sunderland more likely to sit in spells than turn this into a full-track game.
No official lineups supplied; Newcastle are missing Bruno Guimaraes and Fabian Schar, while Sunderland also carry several absences and a few key question marks.
The straight home win is cleaner than BTTS or totals, where both teams' absences pull the goal script in different directions.

Official lineups

Official lineups are not posted yet. This panel updates when the feed goes live.

Injuries

No injury report is currently available for this match.

Why it made the board

Complete

Newcastle home win is the highest-probability angle on the board. Even with key absences, they are still the stronger side here, and Sunderland arrive with enough missing depth and uncertainty that backing the home side is cleaner than forcing a goals play.

Main risk

The main danger is Newcastle's missing spine flattening their build-up and defensive control, especially if Sunderland land the first goal in a volatile derby.

Update timeline

Current version

Initial pick

Published

Mar 22, 2026, 12:45 AM GMT+1

Last update

Mar 22, 2026, 12:04 PM GMT+1

Score

Locked

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