Match detail
Newcastle United vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Premier League · 35
Match summary
vs
Premier League · 35
Lineup revision status
CompleteLineup-based prediction complete
The final pre-kickoff prediction has already been re-run with the official lineups.
Current version
Lineup revisionRe-run after the official lineups were posted.
Status
Full Time
Venue
St. James' Park · Newcastle upon Tyne
Referee
—
Live score
3-1
Top event
Goals Over/Under: Under 3.0
Probability
58%
Price
1.80
Initial publish
May 2, 2026, 3:12 PM GMT+2
Kickoff
May 2, 2026, 4:00 PM GMT+2
Revision time
May 2, 2026, 6:30 PM GMT+2
Halftime score
2-0
What shaped the view
- + Likely competitive rather than reckless early, with the main danger coming if Brighton’s wide pace creates transitions or Newcastle’s attacking bench opens the game late.
- + Newcastle start Osula with Gordon, Barnes, Elanga and Wissa on the bench, so the initial XI has less obvious pace and finishing punch. Brighton have Mitoma/Minteh wide, but also a Groß-Baleba base that can manage phases.
- + Under 3.0 is preferred over the noisy -0.25 handicaps; the side prices ask for too much conviction either way.
Official lineups
Newcastle United
Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Coach: —
Starting XI
- #1 · Nick Pope · GOALKEEPER
- #67 · Lewis Miley · DEFENDER
- #12 · Malick Thiaw · DEFENDER
- #4 · Sven Botman · DEFENDER
- #33 · Dan Burn · DEFENDER
- #39 · Bruno Guimarães · MIDFIELDER
- #8 · Sandro Tonali · MIDFIELDER
- #23 · Jacob Murphy · MIDFIELDER
- #28 · Joe Willock · MIDFIELDER
- #7 · Joelinton · MIDFIELDER
- #18 · William Osula · ATTACKER
Bench
Kieran Trippier, Lewis Hall, Yoane Wissa, Anthony Gordon, Harvey Barnes, Anthony Elanga, Nick Woltemade, Aaron Ramsdale
Brighton & Hove Albion
Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Coach: —
Starting XI
- #1 · Bart Verbruggen · GOALKEEPER
- #27 · Mats Wieffer · DEFENDER
- #6 · Jan Paul van Hecke · DEFENDER
- #21 · Olivier Boscagli · DEFENDER
- #24 · Ferdi Kadıoğlu · DEFENDER
- #30 · Pascal Groß · MIDFIELDER
- #17 · Carlos Baleba · MIDFIELDER
- #11 · Yankuba Minteh · MIDFIELDER
- #13 · Jack Hinshelwood · MIDFIELDER
- #22 · Kaoru Mitoma · MIDFIELDER
- #18 · Danny Welbeck · ATTACKER
Bench
Igor Julio, Lewis Dunk, Georginio Rutter, Charalampos Kostoulas, Jason Steele, Yasin Ayari, Maxim De Cuyper, Matt O'Riley
Injuries
- Brighton & Hove Albion · Stefanos Tzimas · Cruciate Ligament Tear · CRUCIATE_LIGAMENT_TEAR
- Brighton & Hove Albion · Jason Steele · Unknown Injury · UNKNOWN_INJURY
- Brighton & Hove Albion · Adam Webster · Cruciate Ligament Injury · CRUCIATE_LIGAMENT_INJURY
- Brighton & Hove Albion · James Milner · Muscle Injury · MUSCLE_INJURY
- Newcastle United · Fabian Schär · Surgery · SURGERY
- Newcastle United · Emil Krafth · Knee Surgery · KNEE_SURGERY
- Brighton & Hove Albion · Diego Gómez · Knee Injury · KNEE_INJURY
- Newcastle United · Tino Livramento · Thigh Problems · THIGH_PROBLEMS
- Newcastle United · Anthony Gordon · Hip Injury · HIP_INJURY
Why it made the board
The side handicap is trap-prone, while the official XIs make a controlled total more sellable: Newcastle’s starting attack is lighter than their bench options and Brighton’s double-pivot setup should stop this becoming pure chaos. Under 3.0 also protects a three-goal push.
Main risk
Tactical Counter: Brighton isolating Newcastle’s fullbacks, or late Newcastle attacking subs, can turn a contained game into a 4-goal state.
Update timeline
Current version
Lineup revision
Initial publish
May 2, 2026, 3:12 PM GMT+2
Revision time
May 2, 2026, 6:30 PM GMT+2
Score
3-1