Match detail

New Zealand vs Egypt

World Cup 2026 · group_stage

Match summary

New Zealand

Egypt

World Cup 2026 · group_stage

Initial pick

Lineup revision status

Complete

Lineup-based prediction complete

The final pre-kickoff prediction has already been re-run with the official lineups.

Current version

Initial pickThis is the first published version.

Top eventPrice1.82

Goals Over/Under: Under 2.5

Probability

56%

Confidence

medium

Confidence

58%

Published

Jun 22, 2026, 1:43 AM GMT+2

Kickoff

Jun 22, 2026, 3:00 AM GMT+2

Last update

Jun 22, 2026, 4:42 AM GMT+2

Result

LOSS

What shaped the view

Reference first-half lines lean toward Egypt pressure but not an extreme early goal expectation. Matchday-2 escalation is moderate: a win is valuable, but both teams still retain qualification paths with a draw, so goal-difference chasing should not dominate from kickoff.
Both start 4-2-3-1 with double pivots, giving each back four cover; New Zealand have Wood as the clear focal point, while Egypt’s best creators sit behind Marmoush rather than loading the XI with extra forwards.
Under 2.5 beats the closest rejected family, Asian Handicap, because Home +1 needs New Zealand to survive an Egypt first-goal script, while Away -1 needs Egypt to win by 2+ or push on exactly one; the total needs fewer margin assumptions in an efficient market.

Official lineups

Official lineups are not posted yet. This panel updates when the feed goes live.

Injuries

No injury report is currently available for this match.

Why it made the board

Complete

The cleanest angle is a controlled 4-2-3-1 v 4-2-3-1 game where both midfields have two holders and neither side is structurally forced into early desperation. New Zealand’s main route is service into Wood plus Singh/Just support, which can create moments but not necessarily repeated high-volume chances. Egypt have the higher-end attackers, yet the -1 handicap is fragile because a one-goal win only pushes and New Zealand’s set-piece/focal-point route keeps the backdoor alive. BTTS Yes is rejected because New Zealand have a plausible scoring route, but not enough supplied evidence of stable high-quality shot volume against Egypt’s protected back four.

Main risk

Tactical Counter: If Egypt score first, New Zealand have enough direct outlet and attacking bench options to open the game late, which is the main Under risk. A second-half chase by either side could turn a controlled match into transition volume.

Update timeline