Match detail

Netherlands vs Sweden

World Cup 2026 · group_stage

Match summary

Netherlands

Sweden

World Cup 2026 · group_stage

Initial pick

Lineup revision status

Complete

Lineup-based prediction complete

The final pre-kickoff prediction has already been re-run with the official lineups.

Current version

Initial pickThis is the first published version.

Top eventPrice1.97

Asian Handicap: Sweden +0.75

Probability

56%

Confidence

medium

Confidence

58%

Published

Jun 20, 2026, 5:55 PM GMT+2

Kickoff

Jun 20, 2026, 7:00 PM GMT+2

Last update

Jun 21, 2026, 12:01 AM GMT+2

Result

LOSS

What shaped the view

This is not Matchday 3: neither side is qualified or rotating after qualification. Sweden lead the group on 3 pts and a draw preserves a strong top-two path; Netherlands need points but do not need to chase a margin yet with Tunisia still to play.
Netherlands have the stronger midfield control and deep attacking bench, but Sweden start a credible 3-1-4-2 with Gyökeres and Isak giving direct counter threat against Dutch fullback width.
Away +0.75 at 1.97 is preferred to Home -0.75 because Sweden only need to avoid defeat for a full win and a one-goal loss is only a half loss. On totals, Over 3 at 2.00 has push value but needs four goals to cash, while Under 3 at 1.80 is not attractive enough against both attacking units and late Dutch bench options.

Official lineups

Official lineups are not posted yet. This panel updates when the feed goes live.

Injuries

No injury report is currently available for this match.

Why it made the board

Complete

The handicap gives useful protection in a matchup where Sweden’s group position and front-two structure can keep them competitive. Netherlands may control possession, but Sweden’s draw incentive, transition outlets, and enough bench continuity make a Dutch multi-goal win a less likely route than the price implies.

Main risk

Tactical Counter: Netherlands’ midfield superiority and stronger late attacking substitutes can pin Sweden back; if Dutch pressure turns into a two-goal margin, the +0.75 fails fully.

Update timeline