Match detail

Netherlands vs Japan

World Cup 2026 · group_stage

Match summary

Netherlands

Japan

World Cup 2026 · group_stage

Initial pick

Lineup revision status

Complete

Lineup-based prediction complete

The final pre-kickoff prediction has already been re-run with the official lineups.

Current version

Initial pickThis is the first published version.

Top eventPrice2.00

Asian Handicap: Netherlands -0.5

Probability

54%

Confidence

medium

Confidence

58%

Published

Jun 14, 2026, 9:06 PM GMT+2

Kickoff

Jun 14, 2026, 10:00 PM GMT+2

Last update

Jun 15, 2026, 3:39 AM GMT+2

Result

LOSS

What shaped the view

Opening Group F match with all teams on 0 points, so neither side is already qualified or incentivized to protect a Matchday 3 table position. Japan can be compact early, but Netherlands have enough width and late attacking depth to keep pressure rising if level.
Netherlands start a balanced 4-3-3 with Van Dijk anchoring, De Jong-Gravenberch-Reijnders controlling midfield, and Gakpo/Malen/Summerville supported by stronger late attacking bench options in Depay, Weghorst, Lang and Brobbey. Japan’s 3-4-2-1 has real transition threat through Kubo, Maeda and Ueda, but the wing-back/outer-CB zones can be stressed by Dutch width.
Home -0.5 at 2.00 is preferred over Away +0.5 at 1.80 because the Dutch XI has the clearer midfield-control and bench-impact path to a regulation win. Totals are less clean: Over 2.25 at 1.82 needs Japan to open up or both benches to raise tempo, while Under 2.25 at 2.00 is vulnerable to first-match attacking quality and late Dutch substitutes.

Official lineups

Official lineups are not posted yet. This panel updates when the feed goes live.

Injuries

No injury report is currently available for this match.

Why it made the board

Complete

Asian Handicap is the priority market and Netherlands -0.5 is the cleanest edge at evens: their midfield three should give better control against Japan’s 3-4-2-1, while the bench offers multiple ways to chase or break a tight game without relying on extra time. Risk remains Japan’s transition quality through Kubo/Maeda and the draw being a live outcome in an opening group match.

Main risk

Tactical Counter: Japan’s compact back three plus quick counters can turn Dutch territorial control into low-margin possession, making a draw the main threat to Home -0.5.

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