Match detail
Napoli vs Bologna
Serie A · 36
Match summary
vs
Serie A · 36
Lineup revision status
CompleteLineup-based prediction complete
The final pre-kickoff prediction has already been re-run with the official lineups.
Current version
Lineup revisionRe-run after the official lineups were posted.
Status
Not Started
Venue
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona · Napoli
Referee
—
Live score
0-0
Top event
Goals Over/Under: Under 2.5
Probability
55%
Price
1.92
Initial publish
May 11, 2026, 8:13 PM GMT+2
Kickoff
May 11, 2026, 8:45 PM GMT+2
Revision time
May 11, 2026, 9:01 PM GMT+2
Halftime score
0-0
What shaped the view
- + Napoli should own more of the ball and territory, but Bologna's setup looks more likely to sit and counter than help turn this into a full-speed trade of chances.
- + Official XIs confirm Lukaku out and keep Napoli more control-heavy through the spine; Bologna still start Orsolini, Bernardeschi and Castro, so the away-goal risk keeps this medium rather than high.
- + Rejected Asian Handicap: Home -0.75. Napoli can be the right side without creating enough separation, and Under 2.5 has more protection than BTTS No if Bologna nick a single goal.
Official lineups
Napoli
Formation: 3-4-2-1 · Coach: —
Starting XI
- #32 · Vanja Milinković-Savić · GOALKEEPER
- #22 · Giovanni Di Lorenzo · DEFENDER
- #13 · Amir Rrahmani · DEFENDER
- #4 · Alessandro Buongiorno · DEFENDER
- #21 · Matteo Politano · MIDFIELDER
- #68 · Stanislav Lobotka · MIDFIELDER
- #8 · Scott McTominay · MIDFIELDER
- #3 · Miguel Gutiérrez · MIDFIELDER
- #23 · Giovane · ATTACKER
- #27 · Alisson Santos · ATTACKER
- #19 · Rasmus Højlund · ATTACKER
Bench
Alex Meret, Juan Jesus, Billy Gilmour, Nikita Contini, Mathías Olivera, Eljif Elmas, Antonio Vergara, Pasquale Mazzocchi
Bologna
Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Coach: —
Starting XI
- #25 · Massimo Pessina · GOALKEEPER
- #17 · João Mário · DEFENDER
- #5 · Eivind Helland · DEFENDER
- #26 · Jhon Lucumí · DEFENDER
- #33 · Juan Miranda · DEFENDER
- #4 · Tommaso Pobega · MIDFIELDER
- #8 · Remo Freuler · MIDFIELDER
- #7 · Riccardo Orsolini · MIDFIELDER
- #19 · Lewis Ferguson · MIDFIELDER
- #10 · Federico Bernardeschi · MIDFIELDER
- #9 · Santiago Castro · ATTACKER
Bench
Lukasz Skorupski, Nikola Moro, Jonathan Rowe, Federico Ravaglia, Torbjørn Heggem, Nadir Zortea, Jens Odgaard, Charalampos Lykogiannis
Injuries
- Napoli · Romelu Lukaku · Muscular problems · MUSCULAR_PROBLEMS
- Napoli · Mathías Olivera · Muscle Fatigue · MUSCLE_FATIGUE
- Bologna · Nicolò Cambiaghi · Thigh Problems · THIGH_PROBLEMS
- Bologna · Nicolò Casale · Calf Muscle Tear · CALF_MUSCLE_TEAR
- Bologna · Martin Vitík · Ankle Sprain · ANKLE_SPRAIN
Why it made the board
Lukaku's absence and Napoli's control-heavy spine still point to a managed home game, while Bologna's Freuler-Pobega double pivot and low-stakes spot are not a natural recipe for a wide-open trade. Under 2.5 is cleaner than asking Napoli to win by margin.
Main risk
Regression: Main danger is an early Napoli goal against Bologna's weakened back line turning the last hour into 2-1 or 3-0 territory.
Update timeline
Current version
Lineup revision
Initial publish
May 11, 2026, 8:13 PM GMT+2
Revision time
May 11, 2026, 9:01 PM GMT+2
Score
Locked