Match detail

Mexico vs Korea Republic

World Cup 2026 · group_stage

Match summary

Mexico

Korea Republic

World Cup 2026 · group_stage

Initial pick

Lineup revision status

Complete

Lineup-based prediction complete

The final pre-kickoff prediction has already been re-run with the official lineups.

Current version

Initial pickThis is the first published version.

Top eventPrice1.82

Asian Handicap: Korea Republic +0.5

Probability

57%

Confidence

medium

Confidence

58%

Published

Jun 19, 2026, 2:33 AM GMT+2

Kickoff

Jun 19, 2026, 3:00 AM GMT+2

Last update

Jun 19, 2026, 7:05 AM GMT+2

Result

LOSS

What shaped the view

Both teams sit top of Group A after opening wins; a draw moves each to 4 points and preserves qualification control, so the game state leans controlled rather than all-out chase.
Korea’s 3-4-2-1 gives them a protected back three with Hwang In-beom/Seung Ho Paik screening and Son supported by Kang-in Lee and Jae-sung Lee; Mexico have attacking width but their midfield mix looks more functional than dominant.
Away +0.5 at 1.82 is preferred over Home -0.5 at 2.00 because the draw is a live, strategically acceptable result for both teams on 3 points, while Mexico need a clean win for the home handicap to land.

Official lineups

Official lineups are not posted yet. This panel updates when the feed goes live.

Injuries

No injury report is currently available for this match.

Why it made the board

Complete

Korea Republic +0.5 covers with either a draw or away win, which fits the group incentives better than asking Mexico to win outright. Korea’s starting shape has enough central protection and transition threat to resist Mexico’s 4-3-3, while both benches offer late attacking options without forcing either side into early risk unless trailing.

Main risk

Tactical Counter: Mexico’s home setting and wider front three can pin Korea’s wingbacks deep; if Mexico score first, Korea may have to open the match and the +0.5 protection becomes more fragile.

Update timeline