Match detail
Lens vs Toulouse
Ligue 1 · 30
Match summary
vs
Ligue 1 · 30
Lineup revision status
CompleteLineup-based prediction complete
The final pre-kickoff prediction has already been re-run with the official lineups.
Current version
Lineup revisionRe-run after the official lineups were posted.
Status
Full Time
Venue
Stade Bollaert-Delelis · Lens
Referee
—
Live score
3-2
Top event
Asian Handicap: Toulouse +1.5
Probability
59%
Price
1.75
Initial publish
Apr 17, 2026, 6:34 PM GMT+2
Kickoff
Apr 17, 2026, 8:45 PM GMT+2
Revision time
Apr 17, 2026, 8:08 PM GMT+2
Halftime score
0-2
What shaped the view
- + Lens should control more of the game, but the mirrored 3-4-2-1 setups still leave Toulouse enough transition threat to keep this close.
- + Lens start Risser in goal with Gradit absent; Toulouse miss McKenzie and Magri but still field Gboho, Dønnum and Emersonn.
- + The straight home win is too short, and Lens cover lines need a cleaner XI edge than this.
Official lineups
Lens
Formation: 3-4-2-1 · Coach: —
Starting XI
- #40 · Robin Risser · GOALKEEPER
- #25 · Ismaëlo Ganiou · DEFENDER
- #20 · Malang Sarr · DEFENDER
- #27 · Arthur Masuaku · DEFENDER
- #23 · Saud Abdulhamid · MIDFIELDER
- #8 · Mamadou Sangaré · MIDFIELDER
- #28 · Adrien Thomasson · MIDFIELDER
- #14 · Matthieu Udol · MIDFIELDER
- #7 · Florian Sotoca · ATTACKER
- #22 · Wesley Saïd · ATTACKER
- #38 · Rayan Fofana · ATTACKER
Bench
Ruben Aguilar, Andrija Bulatovic, Samson Baidoo, Allan Saint-Maximin, Florian Thauvin, Odsonne Édouard, Mathieu Gorgelin, Abdallah Sima
Toulouse
Formation: 3-4-2-1 · Coach: —
Starting XI
- #1 · Guillaume Restes · GOALKEEPER
- #35 · Seny Koumbassa · DEFENDER
- #4 · Charlie Cresswell · DEFENDER
- #2 · Rasmus Nicolaisen · DEFENDER
- #15 · Aron Dønnum · MIDFIELDER
- #23 · Cristian Cásseres Jr. · MIDFIELDER
- #45 · Alexis Vossah · MIDFIELDER
- #12 · Warren Kamanzi · MIDFIELDER
- #10 · Yann Gboho · ATTACKER
- #11 · Santiago Hidalgo · ATTACKER
- #20 · Emersonn · ATTACKER
Bench
Julián Vignolo, Jacen Russell-Rowe, Kjetil Haug, Pape Demba Diop, Djibril Sidibé, Dayann Methalie, Ilyas Azizi, Gaëtan Bakhouche
Injuries
- Lens · Kyllian Antonio · Foot Injury · FOOT_INJURY
- Lens · Régis Gurtner · Hamstring Injury · HAMSTRING_INJURY
- Toulouse · Frank Magri · Knee Injury · KNEE_INJURY
- Toulouse · Álex Domínguez · Ankle Injury · ANKLE_INJURY
- Toulouse · Mark McKenzie · Red Card Suspension · RED_CARD_SUSPENSION
- Lens · Jonathan Gradit · Broken Leg · BROKEN_LEG
- Toulouse · Rafik Messali · Ankle Injury · ANKLE_INJURY
- Toulouse · Abu Francis · Tibia And Fibula Fracture · TIBIA_AND_FIBULA_FRACTURE
Why it made the board
Lens are deserved favourites, but the official XIs do not scream blowout margin. Toulouse still have live counter outlets, while Lens are not at full defensive strength, so +1.5 fits the likely one-goal home-win script better than chasing Lens to cover.
Main risk
Tactical Counter: If Lens pin Toulouse back early and the McKenzie absence gets exposed, the home side can turn territorial control into a two-goal win.
Update timeline
Current version
Lineup revision
Initial publish
Apr 17, 2026, 6:34 PM GMT+2
Revision time
Apr 17, 2026, 8:08 PM GMT+2
Score
3-2