Match detail
Leeds United vs Burnley
Premier League · 35
Match summary
vs
Premier League · 35
Lineup revision status
CompleteLineup-based prediction complete
The final pre-kickoff prediction has already been re-run with the official lineups.
Current version
Lineup revisionRe-run after the official lineups were posted.
Status
Full Time
Venue
Elland Road · Leeds
Referee
—
Live score
3-1
Top event
Goals Over/Under: Under 3.0
Probability
59%
Price
1.80
Initial publish
May 1, 2026, 8:07 PM GMT+2
Kickoff
May 1, 2026, 9:00 PM GMT+2
Revision time
May 1, 2026, 8:07 PM GMT+2
Halftime score
1-0
What shaped the view
- + Leeds should have territory, but Burnley’s lone-striker setup points to compression rather than an open exchange. Under also gets protection with a push on exactly three goals.
- + Official XIs: Burnley start in a 5-4-1, while Leeds use a 3-5-2 with Bogle and Justin as wing-backs and Calvert-Lewin/Okafor up front.
- + The side-family options are less clean: Leeds -1.25 needs margin against a packed block, while Burnley +1.5 is exposed if the low block cracks. Under 3.0 is the safer expression.
Official lineups
Burnley
Formation: 5-4-1 · Coach: —
Starting XI
- #1 · Martin Dúbravka · GOALKEEPER
- #2 · Kyle Walker · DEFENDER
- #18 · Hjalmar Ekdal · DEFENDER
- #5 · Maxime Estève · DEFENDER
- #12 · Bashir Humphreys · DEFENDER
- #3 · Quilindschy Hartman · DEFENDER
- #17 · Loum Tchaouna · MIDFIELDER
- #29 · Josh Laurent · MIDFIELDER
- #20 · James Ward-Prowse · MIDFIELDER
- #11 · Jaidon Anthony · MIDFIELDER
- #19 · Zian Flemming · ATTACKER
Bench
Joe Worrall, Lesley Ugochukwu, Marcus Edwards, Max Weiß, Florentino, Lucas Pires, Zeki Amdouni, Armando Broja
Leeds United
Formation: 3-5-2 · Coach: —
Starting XI
- #26 · Karl Darlow · GOALKEEPER
- #6 · Joe Rodon · DEFENDER
- #15 · Jaka Bijol · DEFENDER
- #5 · Pascal Struijk · DEFENDER
- #2 · Jayden Bogle · MIDFIELDER
- #18 · Anton Stach · MIDFIELDER
- #4 · Ethan Ampadu · MIDFIELDER
- #22 · Ao Tanaka · MIDFIELDER
- #24 · James Justin · MIDFIELDER
- #9 · Dominic Calvert-Lewin · ATTACKER
- #19 · Noah Okafor · ATTACKER
Bench
Lucas Perri, Daniel James, Sean Longstaff, Joël Piroe, Brenden Aaronson, Lukas Nmecha, Sebastiaan Bornauw, Sam Byram
Injuries
- Leeds United · Ilia Gruev · Unknown Injury · UNKNOWN_INJURY
- Burnley · Josh Cullen · Cruciate Ligament Tear · CRUCIATE_LIGAMENT_TEAR
- Burnley · Jordan Beyer · Knee Injury · KNEE_INJURY
- Burnley · Mike Tresor · Unknown Injury · UNKNOWN_INJURY
- Leeds United · Gabriel Gudmundsson · Unknown Injury · UNKNOWN_INJURY
- Burnley · Axel Tuanzebe · Doubtful · DOUBTFUL
- Burnley · Connor Roberts · Achilles tendon problems · ACHILLES_TENDON_PROBLEMS
Why it made the board
Burnley’s confirmed 5-4-1 makes this more likely to be Leeds pressure against a compact block than a free-running game. Leeds have enough control to pin Burnley back, but the handicap asks for too much margin; Under 3.0 fits the 1-0, 2-0 or cagey 1-1 scripts and pushes at three.
Main risk
Tactical Counter: An early Leeds goal is the main danger because Burnley have attacking options to chase from the bench, which can turn the match into transitions. There is also some odds-trap risk because the market can clearly see Burnley’s defensive shape.
Update timeline
Current version
Lineup revision
Initial publish
May 1, 2026, 8:07 PM GMT+2
Revision time
May 1, 2026, 8:07 PM GMT+2
Score
3-1