Match detail

Japan vs Sweden

World Cup 2026 · group_stage

Match summary

Japan

Sweden

World Cup 2026 · group_stage

Initial pick

Lineup revision status

Complete

Lineup-based prediction complete

The final pre-kickoff prediction has already been re-run with the official lineups.

Current version

Initial pickThis is the first published version.

Top eventPrice1.85

Asian Handicap: Sweden +0.5

Probability

56%

Confidence

medium

Confidence

58%

Published

Jun 26, 2026, 12:12 AM GMT+2

Kickoff

Jun 26, 2026, 1:00 AM GMT+2

Last update

Jun 26, 2026, 3:17 AM GMT+2

Result

WIN

What shaped the view

Japan can start in a controlled draw state, but Sweden's late chase pressure keeps the handicap cover alive unless Japan score first and force a counter-game.
Japan's 3-4-2-1 has Tomiyasu, Junya Ito, Machino and Ogawa to protect a point or add pace; Sweden can answer with Sema, Bergvall and Nygren, so the late phase should stay competitive rather than collapse open.
Group F final round: Japan win -> 7 and likely top-2/1st chase; draw -> 5 and likely top-2; loss -> 4 and third-place dependence. Sweden win -> 6 and top-2 control; draw -> 4 and best-third-place lane; loss -> 3 and a shakier third-place path. Sweden +0.5 fits that draw-first script: Japan can protect qualification with a point and are unlikely to force a multi-goal margin. BTTS Yes was the closest rejected family, but it needs both teams to convert.

Official lineups

Official lineups are not posted yet. This panel updates when the feed goes live.

Injuries

No injury report is currently available for this match.

Why it made the board

Complete

Japan's 4 pts/+4 give them draw value, but they are tied with Netherlands on points/GD and only trail on goals scored, so there is some first-place incentive without true must-win panic. That keeps the script closer to a draw-first game than a full chase, which suits Sweden +0.5: Japan can protect qualification with a point and are unlikely to force a multi-goal margin, while Sweden's urgency keeps the cover live. The bracket path still matters: the Group F winner gets Group C's runner-up, while second gets Group C's winner. BTTS Yes was the closest rejected family, but it is more assumption-heavy than the result-protection handicap.

Main risk

Tactical Counter: If Japan score first, Sweden's forced chase can open the game and turn the away cover into a tactical-counter risk.

Update timeline