Match detail

Iraq vs Norway

World Cup 2026 · group_stage

Match summary

Iraq

Norway

World Cup 2026 · group_stage

Initial pick

Lineup revision status

Complete

Lineup-based prediction complete

The final pre-kickoff prediction has already been re-run with the official lineups.

Current version

Initial pickThis is the first published version.

Top eventPrice2.00

Goals Over/Under: Over 3

Probability

52%

Confidence

medium

Confidence

58%

Published

Jun 16, 2026, 10:53 PM GMT+2

Kickoff

Jun 17, 2026, 12:00 AM GMT+2

Last update

Jun 17, 2026, 5:12 AM GMT+2

Result

WIN

What shaped the view

Matchday 1 gives both teams reason to protect goal difference, but Group I’s France/Senegal context makes a strong Norway win valuable and Iraq can stay direct if trailing.
Norway start a full attacking 4-3-3 with Ødegaard supplying Haaland, Sørloth and Nusa, while Iraq’s 4-4-2 includes two forwards and wide runners rather than a purely damage-limitation XI.
Over 3 at 2.00 is stronger than Under 3 at 1.80 because Norway’s front-loaded XI and Iraq’s counter/aerial outlets create routes to 3+ goals; Under needs Norway control without late transition or margin chasing, which is less attractive at the shorter price.

Official lineups

Official lineups are not posted yet. This panel updates when the feed goes live.

Injuries

No injury report is currently available for this match.

Why it made the board

Complete

Asian Handicap is not clean enough: Norway have the superior XI, but Away -1.75 needs a multi-goal regulation win and Iraq +1.75 still carries heavy pressure against Haaland/Sørloth. The better angle is goals: Norway’s creator/target structure can break Iraq down, Iraq have enough forward presence to contribute or force an open second half, and Over 3 has push protection exactly on three goals.

Main risk

Tactical Counter: Over 3 can push at a controlled 2-1/3-0 type score and loses if Iraq sit deep successfully or Norway manage the lead early rather than chase margin.

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