Match detail
Inter vs Parma
Serie A · 35
Match summary
vs
Serie A · 35
Lineup revision status
CompleteLineup-based prediction complete
The final pre-kickoff prediction has already been re-run with the official lineups.
Current version
Lineup revisionRe-run after the official lineups were posted.
Status
Not Started
Venue
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza · Milano
Referee
—
Live score
0-0
Top eventPrice1.80
Goals Over/Under: Under 3.25
Probability
61%
Confidence
medium
Confidence
61%Initial publish
May 3, 2026, 7:50 PM GMT+2
Kickoff
May 3, 2026, 8:45 PM GMT+2
Revision time
May 3, 2026, 9:00 PM GMT+2
Halftime score
0-0
What shaped the view
- Inter should own territory and attack wide, but the mirrored back-threes point more to long pressure spells than a clean end-to-end game.
- Official XIs move this away from the anchor handicap: Inter still have Thuram, Dimarco, Dumfries and Barella, but Lautaro and Çalhanoğlu are not starting, trimming the finishing/rhythm ceiling. Parma mirror with a compact 3-5-2.
- Totals clearly stronger: Inter -1.75 was rejected because the rotated Inter spine makes a controlled 2-0/2-1 type win more attractive than needing a full margin smash. Parma +1.75 still fights sustained Inter territory, while Over 3.25 needs a real four-goal acceleration.
Official lineups
Parma
Formation: 3-5-2 · Coach: —
Starting XI
- #3 · Abdoulaye Ndiaye · DEFENDER
- #7 · Gabriel Strefezza · ATTACKER
- #9 · Mateo Pellegrino · ATTACKER
- #10 · Adrián Bernabé · MIDFIELDER
- #14 · Emanuele Valeri · MIDFIELDER
- #15 · Enrico Delprato · MIDFIELDER
- #16 · Mandela Keita · MIDFIELDER
- #31 · Zion Suzuki · GOALKEEPER
- #37 · Mariano Troilo · DEFENDER
- #39 · Alessandro Circati · DEFENDER
- #41 · Hans Nicolussi Caviglia · MIDFIELDER
Bench
Lautaro Valenti, Nahuel Estévez, Pontus Almqvist, Jacob Ondrejka, Gaetano Oristanio, Oliver Sørensen, Nesta Elphege, Christian Ordóñez
Inter
Formation: 3-5-2 · Coach: —
Starting XI
- #1 · Yann Sommer · GOALKEEPER
- #2 · Denzel Dumfries · MIDFIELDER
- #7 · Piotr Zieliński · MIDFIELDER
- #8 · Petar Sučić · MIDFIELDER
- #9 · Marcus Thuram · ATTACKER
- #23 · Nicolò Barella · MIDFIELDER
- #25 · Manuel Akanji · DEFENDER
- #31 · Yann Bisseck · DEFENDER
- #32 · Federico Dimarco · MIDFIELDER
- #94 · Pio Esposito · ATTACKER
- #95 · Alessandro Bastoni · DEFENDER
Bench
Stefan de Vrij, Lautaro Martínez, Luis Henrique, Raffaele Di Gennaro, Josep Martínez, Ange-Yoan Bonny, Francesco Acerbi, Davide Frattesi
Injuries
- Inter · Hakan Çalhanoğlu · Calf Muscle Tear · CALF_MUSCLE_TEAR
- Inter · Luis Henrique · Adductor Injury · ADDUCTOR_INJURY
- Parma · Matija Frigan · Arthroscopy · ARTHROSCOPY
- Parma · Benja Cremaschi · Called Up To National Team · CALLED_UP_TO_NATIONAL_TEAM
Why it made the board
CompleteThe confirmed XIs make Under 3.25 cleaner than the aggressive Inter handicap. Inter should control the match, but with Lautaro and Çalhanoğlu outside the XI, their chance of turning dominance into a four-goal game is reduced.
Main risk
Tactical Counter: Tactical Counter: if Dimarco and Dumfries break Parma’s wing-backs early, the first goal can force Parma out and open a 3-1/4-0 path. There is also an odds-trap warning in the high 3.25 total.
Update timeline
Current version
Lineup revision
Initial publish
May 3, 2026, 7:50 PM GMT+2
Revision time
May 3, 2026, 9:00 PM GMT+2
Score
Locked