Match detail
Inter vs Parma
Serie A · 35
Match summary
vs
Serie A · 35
Lineup revision status
CompleteLineup-based prediction complete
The final pre-kickoff prediction has already been re-run with the official lineups.
Current version
Lineup revisionRe-run after the official lineups were posted.
Status
Full Time
Venue
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza · Milano
Referee
—
Live score
2-0
Top event
Goals Over/Under: Under 3.25
Probability
61%
Price
1.80
Initial publish
May 3, 2026, 7:50 PM GMT+2
Kickoff
May 3, 2026, 8:45 PM GMT+2
Revision time
May 3, 2026, 9:00 PM GMT+2
Halftime score
1-0
What shaped the view
- + Inter should own territory and attack wide, but the mirrored back-threes point more to long pressure spells than a clean end-to-end game.
- + Official XIs move this away from the anchor handicap: Inter still have Thuram, Dimarco, Dumfries and Barella, but Lautaro and Çalhanoğlu are not starting, trimming the finishing/rhythm ceiling. Parma mirror with a compact 3-5-2.
- + Totals clearly stronger: Inter -1.75 was rejected because the rotated Inter spine makes a controlled 2-0/2-1 type win more attractive than needing a full margin smash. Parma +1.75 still fights sustained Inter territory, while Over 3.25 needs a real four-goal acceleration.
Official lineups
Parma
Formation: 3-5-2 · Coach: —
Starting XI
- #31 · Zion Suzuki · GOALKEEPER
- #39 · Alessandro Circati · DEFENDER
- #37 · Mariano Troilo · DEFENDER
- #3 · Abdoulaye Ndiaye · DEFENDER
- #15 · Enrico Delprato · MIDFIELDER
- #10 · Adrián Bernabé · MIDFIELDER
- #41 · Hans Nicolussi Caviglia · MIDFIELDER
- #16 · Mandela Keita · MIDFIELDER
- #14 · Emanuele Valeri · MIDFIELDER
- #7 · Gabriel Strefezza · ATTACKER
- #9 · Mateo Pellegrino · ATTACKER
Bench
Lautaro Valenti, Nahuel Estévez, Pontus Almqvist, Jacob Ondrejka, Gaetano Oristanio, Oliver Sørensen, Nesta Elphege, Christian Ordóñez
Inter
Formation: 3-5-2 · Coach: —
Starting XI
- #1 · Yann Sommer · GOALKEEPER
- #31 · Yann Bisseck · DEFENDER
- #25 · Manuel Akanji · DEFENDER
- #95 · Alessandro Bastoni · DEFENDER
- #2 · Denzel Dumfries · MIDFIELDER
- #23 · Nicolò Barella · MIDFIELDER
- #7 · Piotr Zieliński · MIDFIELDER
- #8 · Petar Sučić · MIDFIELDER
- #32 · Federico Dimarco · MIDFIELDER
- #9 · Marcus Thuram · ATTACKER
- #94 · Pio Esposito · ATTACKER
Bench
Stefan de Vrij, Lautaro Martínez, Luis Henrique, Raffaele Di Gennaro, Josep Martínez, Ange-Yoan Bonny, Francesco Acerbi, Davide Frattesi
Injuries
- Parma · Benja Cremaschi · Unknown Injury · UNKNOWN_INJURY
- Parma · Matija Frigan · Unknown Injury · UNKNOWN_INJURY
Why it made the board
The confirmed XIs make Under 3.25 cleaner than the aggressive Inter handicap. Inter should control the match, but with Lautaro and Çalhanoğlu outside the XI, their chance of turning dominance into a four-goal game is reduced.
Main risk
Tactical Counter: Tactical Counter: if Dimarco and Dumfries break Parma’s wing-backs early, the first goal can force Parma out and open a 3-1/4-0 path. There is also an odds-trap warning in the high 3.25 total.
Update timeline
Current version
Lineup revision
Initial publish
May 3, 2026, 7:50 PM GMT+2
Revision time
May 3, 2026, 9:00 PM GMT+2
Score
2-0