Match detail
FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Union Berlin
Bundesliga · 33
Match summary
vs
Bundesliga · 33
Lineup revision status
CompleteLineup-based prediction complete
The final pre-kickoff prediction has already been re-run with the official lineups.
Current version
Lineup revisionRe-run after the official lineups were posted.
Status
Full Time
Venue
Mewa Arena · Mainz
Referee
—
Live score
1-3
Top event
Goals Over/Under: Over 2.75
Probability
61%
Price
1.72
Initial publish
May 10, 2026, 6:39 PM GMT+2
Kickoff
May 10, 2026, 7:30 PM GMT+2
Revision time
May 10, 2026, 9:03 PM GMT+2
Halftime score
0-1
What shaped the view
- + Both shapes bring width, direct runners and enough box presence for repeat chances rather than a controlled low-event game.
- + Official XIs still support an attacking script: Mainz keep Becker-Tietz in a 3-5-2 with Amiri/Nebel, while Union go 4-2-3-1 with Burke, Burcu and Ansah behind Ilic.
- + Mainz -0.5 at 1.82 is too fragile in a dead-rubber and Lee is not in the XI; BTTS Yes is the natural read but too short, so Over 2.75 is the cleanest eligible expression.
Official lineups
FSV Mainz 05
Formation: 3-5-2 · Coach: —
Starting XI
- #27 · Robin Zentner · GOALKEEPER
- #21 · Danny da Costa · DEFENDER
- #4 · Stefan Posch · DEFENDER
- #31 · Dominik Kohr · DEFENDER
- #19 · Anthony Caci · MIDFIELDER
- #8 · Paul Nebel · MIDFIELDER
- #6 · Kaishu Sano · MIDFIELDER
- #10 · Nadiem Amiri · MIDFIELDER
- #2 · Grenddy Perozo · MIDFIELDER
- #20 · Phillip Tietz · ATTACKER
- #23 · Sheraldo Becker · ATTACKER
Bench
Jae-sung Lee, Armindo Sieb, Lennard Maloney, Nikolas Veratschnig, Sota Kawasaki, Silvan Widmer, Daniel Batz, Nelson Weiper
FC Union Berlin
Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Coach: —
Starting XI
- #25 · Carl Klaus · GOALKEEPER
- #28 · Christopher Trimmel · DEFENDER
- #5 · Danilho Doekhi · DEFENDER
- #4 · Diogo Leite · DEFENDER
- #15 · Tom Rothe · DEFENDER
- #8 · Rani Khedira · MIDFIELDER
- #6 · Aljoscha Kemlein · MIDFIELDER
- #7 · Oliver Burke · MIDFIELDER
- #10 · Ilyas Ansah · MIDFIELDER
- #9 · Livan Burcu · MIDFIELDER
- #23 · Andrej Ilic · ATTACKER
Bench
Woo-yeong Jeong, András Schäfer, Leopold Querfeld, Josip Juranovic, Tim Skarke, Alex Král, Stanley Nsoki, Derrick Köhn
Injuries
- FSV Mainz 05 · Jae-sung Lee · Broken Toe · BROKEN_TOE
- FSV Mainz 05 · Maxim Leitsch · Hamstring Injury · HAMSTRING_INJURY
- FSV Mainz 05 · Silas · Tibia And Fibula Fracture · TIBIA_AND_FIBULA_FRACTURE
Why it made the board
Becker-Tietz for Mainz and Union's Burke/Burcu/Ansah-Ilic setup give this enough transition and box-threat on both sides to make goals cleaner than the handicap.
Main risk
Odds Trap: The market already leans hard to goals; if Union's double pivot slows the game or either team loses intensity after scoring, this can stall at two goals.
Update timeline
Current version
Lineup revision
Initial publish
May 10, 2026, 6:39 PM GMT+2
Revision time
May 10, 2026, 9:03 PM GMT+2
Score
1-3