Match detail

France vs Sweden

World Cup 2026 · round_of_32

Match summary

France

Sweden

World Cup 2026 · round_of_32

Initial pick

Lineup revision status

Complete

Lineup-based prediction complete

The final pre-kickoff prediction has already been re-run with the official lineups.

Current version

Initial pickThis is the first published version.

Top eventPrice1.90

Asian Handicap: Sweden +1.75

Probability

54%

Confidence

medium

Confidence

58%

Published

Jun 30, 2026, 9:58 PM GMT+2

Kickoff

Jun 30, 2026, 11:00 PM GMT+2

Last update

Jul 1, 2026, 1:13 AM GMT+2

Result

LOSS

What shaped the view

First-half Under 1.5 at 1.81 is only a tempo signal, pointing to some knockout caution before the first goal; if Sweden trail, their forward structure gives enough chase threat to avoid treating a late France extension as automatic.
France have the stronger XI and deeper attacking bench, but Sweden’s 3-4-2-1 keeps Isak and Gyökeres on the pitch together with Elanga as a real outlet rather than a pure low block.
Round of 32 regulation-time market: this is not a team-to-advance call. France -1.75 was the closest rejected family/side, but it needs a 2-goal win for only half profit and 3+ for full cover; Sweden +1.75 has a credible cover path through dual strikers, transition speed, and set-piece/second-ball presence.

Official lineups

Official lineups are not posted yet. This panel updates when the feed goes live.

Injuries

No injury report is currently available for this match.

Why it made the board

Complete

France should control more territory through Tchouaméni/Rabiot protection and wide attackers around Mbappé, but the supplied handicap is large for a knockout 90-minute line. Sweden are not just relying on a deep block: Isak and Gyökeres provide hold-up, penalty-box threat, and counter finishing, with Elanga stretching the back line, so their +1.75 cover path survives both a level game and a one-goal/trailing script. Under 3.5 was considered, but it lost the comparison because a Sweden chase after conceding can open transitions both ways, making the side handicap cleaner than a full-game total.

Main risk

Tactical Counter: Main risk is France’s late bench depth: Thuram, Doué, Cherki, Mateta or Theo Hernández can raise the tempo against tired wing-backs and turn a controlled 1-0/2-0 into the half-loss or full-loss zone.

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