Match detail
Fiorentina vs Lazio
Serie A · 32
Match summary
vs
Serie A · 32
Lineup revision status
CompleteLineup-based prediction complete
The final pre-kickoff prediction has already been re-run with the official lineups.
Current version
Lineup revisionRe-run after the official lineups were posted.
Status
Full Time
Venue
Stadio Artemio Franchi · Firenze
Referee
—
Live score
1-0
Top event
Goals Under 2.25
Probability
57%
Price
1.92
Initial publish
Apr 12, 2026, 11:39 PM GMT+2
Kickoff
Apr 13, 2026, 8:45 PM GMT+2
Revision time
Apr 13, 2026, 8:12 PM GMT+2
Halftime score
1-0
What shaped the view
- + Expect a more controlled, broken-possession game than a full transition match unless an early goal changes the state.
- + Official lineups are now confirmed. The lineup review completed, but the original market was retained because the alternative required a cross-market change.
- + The side prices are noisy near pick'em, while the total is already shaded low and gives better protection if this lands in the 1-0 or 1-1 range.
Official lineups
Lazio
Formation: 4-3-3 · Coach: —
Starting XI
- #40 · Edoardo Motta · GOALKEEPER
- #29 · Manuel Lazzari · DEFENDER
- #13 · Alessio Romagnoli · DEFENDER
- #25 · Oliver Provstgaard · DEFENDER
- #17 · Nuno Tavares · DEFENDER
- #26 · Toma Bašić · MIDFIELDER
- #4 · Patric · MIDFIELDER
- #24 · Kenneth Taylor · MIDFIELDER
- #22 · Matteo Cancellieri · ATTACKER
- #19 · Boulaye Dia · ATTACKER
- #10 · Mattia Zaccagni · ATTACKER
Bench
Luca Pellegrini, Fisayo Dele-Bashiru, Pedro, Tijjani Noslin, Gustav Isaksen, Petar Ratkov, Reda Belahyane, Elseid Hysaj
Fiorentina
Formation: 4-3-3 · Coach: —
Starting XI
- #43 · David de Gea · GOALKEEPER
- #2 · Dodô · DEFENDER
- #3 · Daniele Rugani · DEFENDER
- #6 · Luca Ranieri · DEFENDER
- #21 · Robin Gosens · DEFENDER
- #80 · Giovanni Fabbian · MIDFIELDER
- #8 · Rolando Mandragora · MIDFIELDER
- #27 · Cher Ndour · MIDFIELDER
- #17 · Jack Harrison · ATTACKER
- #91 · Roberto Piccoli · ATTACKER
- #22 · Jacopo Fazzini · ATTACKER
Bench
Luca Lezzerini, Marin Pongracic, Pietro Comuzzo, Manor Solomon, Eman Kospo, Oliver Christensen, Eddy Kouadio, Riccardo Braschi
Injuries
- Fiorentina · Albert Gudmundsson · Red Card Suspension · RED_CARD_SUSPENSION
- Fiorentina · Nicolò Fagioli · Yellow Card Suspension · YELLOW_CARD_SUSPENSION
- Lazio · Daniel Maldini · Unknown Injury · UNKNOWN_INJURY
- Lazio · Adam Marusic · Calf Injury · CALF_INJURY
- Lazio · Nicolò Rovella · Broken Collarbone · BROKEN_COLLARBONE
- Lazio · Ivan Provedel · Shoulder Injury · SHOULDER_INJURY
- Fiorentina · Tariq Lamptey · Knee Injury · KNEE_INJURY
- Lazio · Mario Gila · Inflammation In The Knee · INFLAMMATION_IN_THE_KNEE
- Lazio · Samuel Gigot · Muscle Injury · MUSCLE_INJURY
- Fiorentina · Fabiano Parisi · Doubtful · DOUBTFUL
Why it made the board
No lineups yet, but both teams lose important creativity and progression, and the market is already protecting the under with 2.5 at 1.66. Under 2.25 is the cleaner sell than forcing a side in a match that still projects toward 1-0 or 1-1.
Main risk
Tactical Counter: If Lazio's weakened back line and keeper situation lead to an early Fiorentina goal, the game can open up faster than the low-total script expects.
Update timeline
Current version
Lineup revision
Initial publish
Apr 12, 2026, 11:39 PM GMT+2
Revision time
Apr 13, 2026, 8:12 PM GMT+2
Score
Locked