Match detail
FC Bayern München vs Real Madrid
Champions League · Quarter-finals
Match summary
vs
Champions League · Quarter-finals
Lineup revision status
CompleteLineup-based prediction complete
The final pre-kickoff prediction has already been re-run with the official lineups.
Current version
Lineup revisionRe-run after the official lineups were posted.
Status
Full Time
Venue
Allianz Arena · Munich
Referee
—
Live score
4-3
Top event
Goals Over/Under First Half: Over 1.5
Probability
64%
Price
1.77
Initial publish
Apr 14, 2026, 11:37 PM GMT+2
Kickoff
Apr 15, 2026, 9:00 PM GMT+2
Revision time
Apr 15, 2026, 8:02 PM GMT+2
Halftime score
2-3
What shaped the view
- + Real must chase from 2-1 down, which should force transition-heavy phases rather than a control game.
- + Official lineups are now confirmed. The lineup review completed, but the original market was retained because the alternative required a cross-market change.
- + Bayern -1 is too exposed with the home side already protecting a first-leg lead; Over 3.5 is the lowest qualifying total.
Official lineups
FC Bayern München
Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Coach: —
Starting XI
- #1 · Manuel Neuer · GOALKEEPER
- #44 · Josip Stanisic · DEFENDER
- #2 · Dayot Upamecano · DEFENDER
- #4 · Jonathan Tah · DEFENDER
- #27 · Konrad Laimer · DEFENDER
- #6 · Joshua Kimmich · MIDFIELDER
- #45 · Aleksandar Pavlovic · MIDFIELDER
- #17 · Michael Olise · MIDFIELDER
- #7 · Serge Gnabry · MIDFIELDER
- #14 · Luis Díaz · MIDFIELDER
- #9 · Harry Kane · ATTACKER
Bench
Min-jae Kim, Leon Goretzka, Jamal Musiala, Nicolas Jackson, Alphonso Davies, Hiroki Ito, Raphaël Guerreiro, Leonard Prescott
Real Madrid
Formation: 4-4-2 · Coach: —
Starting XI
- #13 · Andriy Lunin · GOALKEEPER
- #12 · Trent Alexander-Arnold · DEFENDER
- #3 · Éder Militão · DEFENDER
- #22 · Antonio Rüdiger · DEFENDER
- #23 · Ferland Mendy · DEFENDER
- #21 · Brahim Díaz · MIDFIELDER
- #5 · Jude Bellingham · MIDFIELDER
- #8 · Federico Valverde · MIDFIELDER
- #15 · Arda Güler · MIDFIELDER
- #10 · Kylian Mbappé · ATTACKER
- #7 · Vinicius Junior · ATTACKER
Bench
Daniel Carvajal, David Alaba, Eduardo Camavinga, Gonzalo García, Álvaro Carreras, Dani Ceballos, Fran García, Dean Huijsen
Injuries
- FC Bayern München · Lennart Karl · Muscle Injury · MUSCLE_INJURY
- FC Bayern München · Bara Sapoko Ndiaye · No Eligibility · NO_ELIGIBILITY
- Real Madrid · Aurélien Tchouaméni · Unknown Injury · UNKNOWN_INJURY
- FC Bayern München · Sven Ulreich · Unknown Injury · UNKNOWN_INJURY
- FC Bayern München · Leon Klanac · Hamstring Injury · HAMSTRING_INJURY
- FC Bayern München · David Santos Daiber · Thigh Muscle Strain · THIGH_MUSCLE_STRAIN
- Real Madrid · Raúl Asencio · Doubtful · DOUBTFUL
- Real Madrid · Rodrygo · Unknown Injury · UNKNOWN_INJURY
- Real Madrid · Joan Martínez · Unknown Injury · UNKNOWN_INJURY
- FC Bayern München · Cassiano Kiala · Ankle Injury · ANKLE_INJURY
Why it made the board
Official lineups are now confirmed and the latest odds were re-checked. The lineup review completed, but the evidence was not strong enough to justify replacing this angle with a cross-market alternative, so the original market stayed on the board.
Main risk
Tactical Counter: If Bayern score first and then manage the aggregate lead instead of trading, this can stall in the 2-1 or 1-1 range.
Update timeline
Current version
Lineup revision
Initial publish
Apr 14, 2026, 11:37 PM GMT+2
Revision time
Apr 15, 2026, 8:02 PM GMT+2
Score
Locked