Match detail

England vs Congo DR

World Cup 2026 · round_of_32

Match summary

England

Congo DR

World Cup 2026 · round_of_32

Initial pick

Lineup revision status

Complete

Lineup-based prediction complete

The final pre-kickoff prediction has already been re-run with the official lineups.

Current version

Initial pickThis is the first published version.

Top eventPrice1.97

Asian Handicap: England -1.5

Probability

54%

Confidence

medium

Confidence

58%

Published

Jul 1, 2026, 4:47 PM GMT+2

Kickoff

Jul 1, 2026, 6:00 PM GMT+2

Last update

Jul 1, 2026, 8:41 PM GMT+2

Result

LOSS

What shaped the view

First-half reference markets point to England pressure but not a guaranteed early goal. Knockout caution can slow the opening phase, while a first England goal raises Congo DR chase risk and creates the main margin-building window.
England’s 4-2-3-1 has Rice-Anderson protection behind Bellingham, Madueke, Rashford and Kane, with Saka, Gordon, Watkins, Eze and Toney giving stronger late attacking substitution paths. Congo DR have a compact 4-2-3-1 and Wissa as the main outlet, but their cover path depends heavily on surviving sustained territory and first-contact defending.
Closest rejected family was Goals Over/Under: Over 2.25 is live if Congo DR open up, but it needs either Congo scoring or England reaching three; Home -1.5 is cleaner because England can win it through a 2-0 control script or late bench-driven extension. This is Round of 32 regulation-time only, so England advancement strength is separated from the 90-minute handicap risk.

Official lineups

Official lineups are not posted yet. This panel updates when the feed goes live.

Injuries

No injury report is currently available for this match.

Why it made the board

Complete

Asian Handicap is preferred at the supplied prices. England have the stronger balanced XI, clearer chance volume routes through both wings plus Bellingham/Kane central occupation, and a much deeper attacking bench to attack a stretched final 30 minutes. Congo DR’s underdog +1.5 case is not just low block survival: they do have Wissa and wide runners, but the supplied lineup gives less evidence of stable progression under long spells without the ball, so late territorial pressure can turn a narrow lead into a two-goal result. Efficient market, medium confidence only because knockout game-state caution makes 1-0/2-1 the main danger.

Main risk

Tactical Counter: Main risk is knockout caution or Congo DR’s compact back four keeping the match in a one-goal band; Home -1.5 loses on any England one-goal win, draw, or Congo DR upset.

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