Match detail

Canada vs Morocco

World Cup 2026 · round_of_16

Match summary

Canada

Morocco

World Cup 2026 · round_of_16

Initial pick

Lineup revision status

Complete

Lineup-based prediction complete

The final pre-kickoff prediction has already been re-run with the official lineups.

Current version

Initial pickThis is the first published version.

Top eventPrice1.99

Asian Handicap: Canada +0.5

Probability

53%

Confidence

medium

Confidence

58%

Published

Jul 4, 2026, 6:34 PM GMT+2

Kickoff

Jul 4, 2026, 7:00 PM GMT+2

Last update

Jul 4, 2026, 9:06 PM GMT+2

Result

LOSS

What shaped the view

Round of 16 game state should be cautious before the first goal. After a goal, risk rises: Canada have enough transition and substitute threat to chase, while Morocco's attacking bench can punish space, so the draw-protected home handicap fits the efficient market better than a low-total shelter.
Canada's 4-4-2 has a real underdog cover path: David and Oluwaseyi give a direct front-two outlet, Buchanan/Ahmed provide wide release, and Eustaquio-Sigur can screen central combinations. Morocco's 4-2-3-1 has better creative layering through Brahim Diaz, Ounahi and El Khannouss, but Canada also has late bench routes through Davies, Shaffelburg, Millar and Larin.
Asian Handicap was preferred over Goals Over/Under. Under 2.25 was the closest rejected family because knockout tempo can start cautious, but it is more exposed if Morocco score first and Canada's attacking bench turns the match into a chase. Morocco -0.5 was rejected because this is regulation time only; Morocco may still be the cleaner advancement lean without being a strong 90-minute win price.

Official lineups

Official lineups are not posted yet. This panel updates when the feed goes live.

Injuries

No injury report is currently available for this match.

Why it made the board

Complete

Home +0.5 covers Canada win or regulation draw, which matters in a knockout tie where extra time or penalties do not help an Away -0.5 ticket. The edge is thin and the market is efficient; the selection relies on Canada's repeatable out-ball through the front two, wide runners, and stronger late attacking options to keep Morocco from converting territorial control into a regulation-time win.

Main risk

Tactical Counter: No push protection on +0.5: if Morocco's fullbacks stretch Canada's midfield line and the away side score first, Canada must chase and Morocco's bench attackers can close the game out in transition.

Update timeline