Match detail
Burnley vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Premier League · 32
Match summary
vs
Premier League · 32
Lineup revision status
CompleteLineup-based prediction complete
The final pre-kickoff prediction has already been re-run with the official lineups.
Current version
Lineup revisionRe-run after the official lineups were posted.
Status
Full Time
Venue
Turf Moor · Burnley
Referee
—
Live score
0-2
Top event
Goals Over/Under - Over 2.5
Probability
63%
Price
1.66
Initial publish
Apr 11, 2026, 12:11 AM GMT+2
Kickoff
Apr 11, 2026, 4:00 PM GMT+2
Revision time
Apr 11, 2026, 3:12 PM GMT+2
Halftime score
0-1
What shaped the view
- + Brighton project the territorial control, Burnley still have transition and set-piece routes, so the game state leans toward 3+ goals rather than a pure side play.
- + Brighton are missing both Dunk and Webster but still field Minteh, Groß and Welbeck, with Mitoma and Rutter available late; Burnley miss Cullen, Laurent and Beyer, with Ward-Prowse used wide and plenty of attacking subs on the bench.
- + The total is cleaner than the short away win because Brighton should create enough, but their depleted centre-back setup also leaves Burnley live for a goal.
Official lineups
Burnley
Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Coach: —
Starting XI
- #1 · Martin Dúbravka · GOALKEEPER
- #12 · Bashir Humphreys · DEFENDER
- #18 · Hjalmar Ekdal · DEFENDER
- #5 · Maxime Estève · DEFENDER
- #3 · Quilindschy Hartman · DEFENDER
- #20 · James Ward-Prowse · MIDFIELDER
- #16 · Florentino · MIDFIELDER
- #10 · Marcus Edwards · MIDFIELDER
- #8 · Lesley Ugochukwu · MIDFIELDER
- #11 · Jaidon Anthony · MIDFIELDER
- #19 · Zian Flemming · ATTACKER
Bench
Kyle Walker, Joe Worrall, Jacob Bruun Larsen, Lyle Foster, Max Weiß, Loum Tchaouna, Lucas Pires, Armando Broja
Brighton & Hove Albion
Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Coach: —
Starting XI
- #1 · Bart Verbruggen · GOALKEEPER
- #27 · Mats Wieffer · DEFENDER
- #6 · Jan Paul van Hecke · DEFENDER
- #21 · Olivier Boscagli · DEFENDER
- #24 · Ferdi Kadıoğlu · DEFENDER
- #26 · Yasin Ayari · MIDFIELDER
- #30 · Pascal Groß · MIDFIELDER
- #25 · Diego Gómez · MIDFIELDER
- #13 · Jack Hinshelwood · MIDFIELDER
- #11 · Yankuba Minteh · MIDFIELDER
- #18 · Danny Welbeck · ATTACKER
Bench
Igor Julio, Solly March, Georginio Rutter, Carlos Baleba, Charalampos Kostoulas, Kaoru Mitoma, Jason Steele, Maxim De Cuyper
Injuries
- Brighton & Hove Albion · Adam Webster · Knee Injury · KNEE_INJURY
- Burnley · Hannibal · Unknown Injury · UNKNOWN_INJURY
- Burnley · Zeki Amdouni · Cruciate Ligament Injury · CRUCIATE_LIGAMENT_INJURY
- Burnley · Axel Tuanzebe · Doubtful · DOUBTFUL
- Brighton & Hove Albion · Lewis Dunk · Yellow Card Suspension · YELLOW_CARD_SUSPENSION
- Burnley · Mike Tresor · Ankle Injury · ANKLE_INJURY
- Brighton & Hove Albion · Stefanos Tzimas · Cruciate Ligament Injury · CRUCIATE_LIGAMENT_INJURY
- Burnley · Connor Roberts · Unknown Injury · UNKNOWN_INJURY
- Burnley · Jordan Beyer · Knee Injury · KNEE_INJURY
- Brighton & Hove Albion · Jason Steele · Unknown Injury · UNKNOWN_INJURY
Why it made the board
Official lineups make this more of a goals game than a side sell: Brighton still have enough attacking quality to score multiple times, while Burnley have clear routes into the match against a Brighton back line missing its usual centre-back pair.
Main risk
Odds Trap: Main failure modes are Burnley dropping into a stubborn back five and killing tempo, or the obvious over angle being priced tightly enough that the match dies at two goals.
Update timeline
Current version
Lineup revision
Initial publish
Apr 11, 2026, 12:11 AM GMT+2
Revision time
Apr 11, 2026, 3:12 PM GMT+2
Score
Locked