Match detail
Bologna vs Aston Villa
Europa League · Quarter-finals
Match summary
vs
Europa League · Quarter-finals
Lineup revision status
CompleteLineup-based prediction complete
The final pre-kickoff prediction has already been re-run with the official lineups.
Current version
Lineup revisionRe-run after the official lineups were posted.
Status
Full Time
Venue
Stadio Renato Dall'Ara · Bologna
Referee
—
Live score
1-3
Top event
Match Winner / 1X2 - Aston Villa
Probability
49%
Price
2.14
Initial publish
Apr 8, 2026, 11:57 PM GMT+2
Kickoff
Apr 9, 2026, 9:00 PM GMT+2
Revision time
Apr 9, 2026, 8:10 PM GMT+2
Halftime score
0-1
What shaped the view
- + Likely controlled early, then Villa’s extra quality has a better chance of deciding it late.
- + Villa’s spine is intact and the bench is deeper; Bologna start Ravaglia, have a changed defence and Orsolini is only among the subs.
- + The straight away win pays better than the equivalent -0.5 handicap, so it is the cleanest way to back the same script.
Polymarket reference
Main pick price
2.14
Polymarket reference
Lower · 1.00
Market delta
-1.14
Official lineups
Aston Villa
Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Coach: —
Starting XI
- #23 · Emiliano Martínez · GOALKEEPER
- #2 · Matty Cash · DEFENDER
- #4 · Ezri Konsa · DEFENDER
- #14 · Pau Torres · DEFENDER
- #12 · Lucas Digne · DEFENDER
- #24 · Amadou Onana · MIDFIELDER
- #8 · Youri Tielemans · MIDFIELDER
- #7 · John McGinn · MIDFIELDER
- #27 · Morgan Rogers · MIDFIELDER
- #10 · Emiliano Buendía · MIDFIELDER
- #11 · Ollie Watkins · ATTACKER
Bench
Victor Lindelöf, Tyrone Mings, Harvey Elliott, Andrés García, Tammy Abraham, Douglas Luiz, Ian Maatsen, Lamare Bogarde
Bologna
Formation: 4-3-3 · Coach: —
Starting XI
- #13 · Federico Ravaglia · GOALKEEPER
- #17 · João Mário · DEFENDER
- #14 · Torbjørn Heggem · DEFENDER
- #26 · Jhon Lucumí · DEFENDER
- #33 · Juan Miranda · DEFENDER
- #19 · Lewis Ferguson · MIDFIELDER
- #8 · Remo Freuler · MIDFIELDER
- #4 · Tommaso Pobega · MIDFIELDER
- #10 · Federico Bernardeschi · ATTACKER
- #9 · Santiago Castro · ATTACKER
- #11 · Jonathan Rowe · ATTACKER
Bench
Nikola Moro, Riccardo Orsolini, Nicolò Casale, Nadir Zortea, Jens Odgaard, Simon Sohm, Massimo Pessina, Nicolò Cambiaghi
Injuries
- Bologna · Benja Domínguez · Back Injury · BACK_INJURY
- Bologna · Lukasz Skorupski · Unknown Injury · UNKNOWN_INJURY
- Bologna · Thijs Dallinga · Muscle Injury · MUSCLE_INJURY
- Bologna · Charalampos Lykogiannis · Muscle Injury · MUSCLE_INJURY
- Aston Villa · Boubacar Kamara · Unknown Injury · UNKNOWN_INJURY
- Aston Villa · Jadon Sancho · Unknown Injury · UNKNOWN_INJURY
- Bologna · Martin Vitík · Yellow Card Suspension · YELLOW_CARD_SUSPENSION
- Bologna · Lorenzo De Silvestri · Thigh Muscle Strain · THIGH_MUSCLE_STRAIN
Why it made the board
Villa’s spine and bench look stronger on the night; Bologna are weaker in goal and defence and keep Orsolini in reserve.
Main risk
Tactical Counter: Bologna’s midfield three can turn this into a stubborn draw-type game, and the away number is still attractive enough to carry some trap risk.
Update timeline
Current version
Lineup revision
Initial publish
Apr 8, 2026, 11:57 PM GMT+2
Revision time
Apr 9, 2026, 8:10 PM GMT+2
Score
Locked