Match detail

Belgium vs Senegal

World Cup 2026 · round_of_32

Match summary

Belgium

Senegal

World Cup 2026 · round_of_32

Initial pick

Lineup revision status

Complete

Lineup-based prediction complete

The final pre-kickoff prediction has already been re-run with the official lineups.

Current version

Initial pickThis is the first published version.

Top eventPrice1.80

Asian Handicap: Belgium -0.25

Probability

56%

Confidence

medium

Confidence

58%

Published

Jul 1, 2026, 8:44 PM GMT+2

Kickoff

Jul 1, 2026, 10:00 PM GMT+2

Last update

Jul 2, 2026, 12:54 AM GMT+2

Result

HALF LOSS

What shaped the view

First-half references lean cautious/efficient rather than explosive: FH Home -0.25 at 2.00 and FH Under 1 at 2.00 suggest early control may not immediately become goals. Expect measured opening risk, then higher transition exposure once one team trails.
Belgium start a balanced 4-2-3-1 with De Bruyne, Trossard and Doku supporting De Ketelaere, plus Lukaku/Lukebakio/Onana as late impact options. Senegal’s 4-3-3 has real transition pace through Mané, Sarr and Ndiaye, with Jackson and Camara available from the bench, so this is not a clean dominance spot.
Round-of-32 regulation-time market: Belgium may be the stronger 90-minute side, but knockout caution and Senegal’s counter threat keep the edge thin. Closest rejected market was Goals Over/Under: Over 2.5 has routes if the first goal opens the game, but it needs more game-state cooperation than Belgium -0.25; Senegal +0.25 was respected for draw cover, yet Belgium’s creator density and stronger late attacking bench make the side-family option slightly cleaner.

Official lineups

Official lineups are not posted yet. This panel updates when the feed goes live.

Injuries

No injury report is currently available for this match.

Why it made the board

Complete

Belgium -0.25 is the preferred eligible market because it only needs a regulation-time win for full profit and loses only if Belgium fail to win, while the draw costs half. The supplied XI gives Belgium more sustained chance-creation structure between De Bruyne, Trossard, Doku and De Ketelaere, and the bench adds late margin/control options through Lukaku, Lukebakio, Onana and Saelemaekers. Senegal have a credible cover path through Mané/Sarr/Ndiaye transitions and athletic midfield pressure, so confidence stays medium, but their route is more dependent on transition quality than Belgium’s repeated service and late substitutions.

Main risk

Tactical Counter: Knockout 90-minute caution can turn Belgium territorial control into a draw, and Senegal’s pace makes the first conceded goal dangerous for the handicap. This is a narrow edge, not a strong mismatch.

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