Match detail

Belgium vs IR Iran

World Cup 2026 · group_stage

Match summary

Belgium

IR Iran

World Cup 2026 · group_stage

Initial pick

Lineup revision status

Complete

Lineup-based prediction complete

The final pre-kickoff prediction has already been re-run with the official lineups.

Current version

Initial pickThis is the first published version.

Top eventPrice1.82

Goals Over/Under: Over 2.5

Probability

56%

Confidence

medium

Confidence

58%

Published

Jun 21, 2026, 7:45 PM GMT+2

Kickoff

Jun 21, 2026, 9:00 PM GMT+2

Last update

Jun 21, 2026, 11:00 PM GMT+2

Result

LOSS

What shaped the view

The first-half over reference suggests the market expects some early pace, but the full-game over relies more on second-half game-state movement with both teams on 1 point and neither safely qualified.
Belgium start a full attacking 4-2-3-1 with De Bruyne, Trossard, Saelemaekers and Lukaku, plus Lukebakio, De Ketelaere and Vanaken as late attacking options. Iran’s 5-4-1 is compact but has Taremi as the outlet and several forward substitutes if chasing.
Closest rejected family: Asian Handicap. Belgium -1.25 needs a two-goal margin and is fragile against Iran’s back five, while Iran +1.25 requires trusting resistance against sustained Belgium service. Over 2.5 better captures Belgium pressure, Iran chase states, and late bench tempo.

Official lineups

Official lineups are not posted yet. This panel updates when the feed goes live.

Injuries

No injury report is currently available for this match.

Why it made the board

Complete

This is an efficient board, so the edge is thin. Over 2.5 is the cleanest expression of the lineups: Belgium have central creation, wide service and a clear box target, while Iran’s draw-to-win incentive means a Belgium opener should force more risk from a 5-4-1 that has attacking replacements available.

Main risk

Tactical Counter: Iran can keep the first hour compact, isolate Taremi, and turn Belgium possession into low-tempo crossing, creating a 1-0, 2-0 or 1-1 risk.

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