Match detail
Atlético Madrid vs Arsenal
Champions League · Semi-finals
Match summary
vs
Champions League · Semi-finals
Lineup revision status
CompleteLineup-based prediction complete
The final pre-kickoff prediction has already been re-run with the official lineups.
Current version
Lineup revisionRe-run after the official lineups were posted.
Status
Full Time
Venue
Riyadh Air Metropolitano · Madrid
Referee
—
Live score
1-1
Top event
Goals Over/Under: Under 2.25
Probability
56%
Price
1.87
Initial publish
Apr 29, 2026, 3:39 AM GMT+2
Kickoff
Apr 29, 2026, 9:00 PM GMT+2
Revision time
Apr 29, 2026, 8:02 PM GMT+2
Halftime score
0-1
What shaped the view
- + Semi-final setup points to Arsenal control and Atlético counter phases rather than sustained chaos, with exactly two goals still protected.
- + Official XIs: Arsenal keep a strong control spine with Rice/Zubimendi plus Saliba/Gabriel, while Saka is only on the bench and Havertz is absent.
- + Only eligible prices supplied are totals; Under 2.25 at 1.87 has the cleaner landing path than chasing Over 2.25.
Official lineups
Arsenal
Formation: 4-3-3 · Coach: —
Starting XI
- #1 · David Raya · GOALKEEPER
- #4 · Ben White · DEFENDER
- #2 · William Saliba · DEFENDER
- #6 · Gabriel Magalhães · DEFENDER
- #5 · Piero Hincapié · DEFENDER
- #8 · Martin Ødegaard · MIDFIELDER
- #41 · Declan Rice · MIDFIELDER
- #36 · Martín Zubimendi · MIDFIELDER
- #20 · Noni Madueke · ATTACKER
- #14 · Viktor Gyökeres · ATTACKER
- #11 · Gabriel Martinelli · ATTACKER
Bench
Cristhian Mosquera, Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Jesus, Eberechi Eze, Kepa Arrizabalaga, Christian Nørgaard, Leandro Trossard, Riccardo Calafiori
Atlético Madrid
Formation: 4-4-2 · Coach: —
Starting XI
- #13 · Jan Oblak · GOALKEEPER
- #14 · Marcos Llorente · DEFENDER
- #18 · Marc Pubill · DEFENDER
- #17 · Dávid Hancko · DEFENDER
- #3 · Matteo Ruggeri · DEFENDER
- #20 · Giuliano Simeone · MIDFIELDER
- #6 · Koke · MIDFIELDER
- #5 · Johnny Cardoso · MIDFIELDER
- #22 · Ademola Lookman · MIDFIELDER
- #7 · Antoine Griezmann · ATTACKER
- #19 · Julián Alvarez · ATTACKER
Bench
Juan Musso, Rodrigo Mendoza, Alexander Sørloth, Álex Baena, Thiago Almada, Clément Lenglet, Nahuel Molina, Obed Vargas
Injuries
- Atlético Madrid · Pablo Barrios · Thigh Muscle Strain · THIGH_MUSCLE_STRAIN
- Arsenal · Kai Havertz · Unknown Injury · UNKNOWN_INJURY
- Atlético Madrid · José María Giménez · Muscle Injury · MUSCLE_INJURY
- Arsenal · Mikel Merino · Unknown Injury · UNKNOWN_INJURY
- Atlético Madrid · Nico González · Unknown Injury · UNKNOWN_INJURY
- Arsenal · Jurriën Timber · Muscle Injury · MUSCLE_INJURY
Why it made the board
The lineups lean more controlled than open: Arsenal’s midfield/CB base is built to slow transitions, and their attack is missing some first-choice sharpness from the start. Under 2.25 also gives cover on a two-goal game.
Main risk
Tactical Counter: Fails if Atlético’s 4-4-2 counter plan lands early, or if the strong attacking benches turn a controlled match into a late transition game.
Update timeline
Current version
Lineup revision
Initial publish
Apr 29, 2026, 3:39 AM GMT+2
Revision time
Apr 29, 2026, 8:02 PM GMT+2
Score
1-1